Gold Fundamental Analysis Feb. 2, 2012, Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis Feb. 2, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

13:30     USD       Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)                                      1.0%                      2.3%     

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.           

 13:30    USD       Initial Jobless Claims                                                    373K                      377K

 13:30    USD      Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)                                                0.9%                      -2.5%                    

 13:30    USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                                          3565K                    3554K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

Today’s Economic Reports Results

GBP       Nationwide HPI (MoM)                     -0.2%                  -0.1%                     -0.2%      Unexpected Drop           

CHF        Retail Sales (YoY)                          0.6%                     1.6%                      1.8%       Unexpected Drop           

CHF        SVME PMI                                         47.3                       51.8                        49.1        Unexpected Drop

EUR        French Manufacturing PMI             48.5                        48.5                        48.5                                       

EUR        German Manufacturing PMI         51.0                       50.9                        50.9         Above Forecast              

 EUR       Manufacturing PMI                         48.8                       48.7                        48.7         Above Forecast              

 GBP      Manufacturing PMI                          52.1                       50.1                        49.7        Above Forecast               

 EUR       CPI (YoY)                                           2.7%                     2.7%                      2.7%

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1749.46 up over 9.00. and continues to rise trading at the highest level since early December as the U.S. dollar came under pressure amid hopes for an imminent debt restructuring agreement for Greece. Gold continues to be a safe haven trade. Regardless of the deal in Greece and the bond sale in Portugal today, investors are spooked.

The USD dropped after employment and manufacturing reports had lackluster results. The ADP report showed employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 170,000 from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated advance in employment from November to December was revised down to 292,000 from the initially reported 325,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 152,000 in January.

The US ISM manufacturing index was slightly lower than expected, rising to 54.1  from 53.1. The details were stronger with the new orders index rising again to the highest level since April last year and the export orders index rising for the third month in a row