Gold Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2014 Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here
Gold Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2014 Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold added $7.70 to trade at 1258.90 as global data disappointed traders today. US Gold futures continued the early recovery on bargain buying, ahead of the ADP employment data scheduled to release later Wednesday. The U.S is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s highly-anticipated non-farm payrolls report by two days, while the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity. The closure of Chinese markets for the Lunar New Year holiday weighed on volumes while markets were also cautious ahead of a key U.S. jobs report on Friday which was hurting buying interest. Gold prices are trading higher by 0.3 percent today on the back of sharp recovery in the SPDR Gold Holdings. Also, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor. However, mixed global market sentiments capped sharp gains. In the Indian markets, gold prices gained around 0.3 percent. Concerns about the fragility of stock markets after a recent heavy sell-off has piqued some investment interest in gold, with the world’s largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, reporting a 3.9-tonne inflow on Tuesday. Investors are likely to stick to the sidelines ahead of US non-farm payrolls data for January on Friday, widely seen as a barometer for the health of the world’s largest economy.

Analysts, however, expect gold to gain in the near term as worries persist over global economic growth and capital flight from emerging markets following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move to taper its stimulus.

“The risk-aversion attitude in the market in quite significant and gold should benefit from that in the short term,” said Mark To, head of research at Hong Kong’s Wing Fung Financial Group.To also said he does not expect U.S. data and earnings to be strong enough to alleviate fears of economic growth. Gold has gained 4 percent so far this year after a 28 percent drop in 2013. Bullion is often considered an alternative investment option to risky assets such as stocks. Investor sentiment as measured by inflows into gold-backed funds seemed to be optimistic.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data February 5, 2014 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Feb. 05

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish Services PMI 

54.9

 

54.8 

 

54.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian Services PMI 

49.4

 

48.6 

 

47.9 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Services PMI 

48.9

 

48.6 

 

48.6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Services PMI 

53.1

 

53.6 

 

53.6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Services PMI 

51.6

 

51.9 

 

51.9 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

58.3

 

59.0 

 

58.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

-0.5% 

 

0.9% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.0%

 

1.5% 

 

1.3% 

   

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

 

2.50% 

 

2.50% 

 

 

 

 

RUB

 

 

Russian CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.7% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

175K

 

180K 

 

227K 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

 

 

2.0% 

 

-6.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Non-Mfg PMI 

 

 

53.7 

 

53.0 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Non-Mfg Employment 

 

 

 

 

55.8 

   

 Gold(15 minutes)20140205141941

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Feb. 06

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.4%

2.1%

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

 

12:00

GBP

BoE QE Total 

 

375B

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

0.25%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.5%

3.0%

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-36.10B

-34.30B

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

-0.5%

-1.4%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Feb 06 09:30 Spain

Feb 06 10:03 Sweden

Feb 07 10:03 Sweden

Feb 07 16:30 Italy

 

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.


include_once( __DIR__ . "/request_context.php");