Gold Fundamental Analysis July 16, 2012, Forecast

Posted July 13, 2012 13:40 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1581.75 up for the day, as investors seemed to be stepping out of their shells adding more risk. Overall sentiment seems positive except in the eurozone. Gold is meandering and holding pretty much is the 1550-1590 range, after it tried to break though unsuccessfully at the 1600 price.

Gold dipped yesterday to a two week low tracking worries about the Euro zone debt crisis and abridged prospects of probable monetary easing from the US Federal Reserve. The Euro is hanging near a two year low pressured by Italy’s credit rating cut by Moody’s. Moody’s warned that it could further downgrade Italy’s new Baa2 rating, which stands just two notches above junk status. Meanwhile, the dollar surged above 2010 July levels against most of its peers.

This morning’s release showed that he Chinese economy grew as expected in the fourth quarter, at the slowest pace in last three years. In the mean time, some reports show that gold markets are oversupplied with the world’s top producer China having churned out 140.7 tonnes of gold in the first five months of 2012, up by 6.6 percent. However physical demand from Asia is seen sluggish as caution conquered summer lull and holdings of gold backed exchange trade funds dropped for the third consecutive day on Thursday. The Italian bond option scheduled today will be closely monitored by investors and traders to get fresh cues over bullion’s direction in the immediate run.

A surprise today in the US as PPI printed higher than forecast, with the USdollar already strong, the positive eco data does not seem to have an effect as of yet on the markets.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

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Jul. 13