Gold Fundamental Analysis July 3, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1598.45 slightly down in the afternoon of the US session. After pushing over the 1600 price level on market jubilation, gold has not been able to break back above.

On Friday after the EU announced its new “banking plan” to fund and protect using ESM and EFSF funds to purchase bonds and provide liquidity, investors were elated and pushed the euro and gold to recent highs.

Gold has held on to its gains, but the USD continues to gain. After a weekend to digest the plan and press and commentary, investors have once again turned worrisome, as the appointment of a bank supervisor is a complicated and slow task, which will most likely be controlled by Germany. Also Norway has blocked the use of ESM and EFSF funds to purchase bonds put a big question into the overall plan.

Markets still remain steady, but are starting to show weakness. Gold had fallen more in early trading but after the US ISM manufacturing reports was released gold gained back most of its losses.

This is a holiday week in the US with markets closed on Wednesday, but the all important Nonfarm reports is due to be released on Friday, so investors will be positioning themselves early, either for protection so they can enjoy a long holiday weekend or just ahead of the data releases. Also the ECB is expected to reduce rates this week on their meeting on the 5th.

Gold will probably keep it’s shine though the end of the week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic date for July 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 July 2

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-1

 

-4 

 

-4 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

48.20

 

 

 

48.10 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

6.2%

 

5.0% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

48.1

 

45.0 

 

45.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

45.2

 

45.3 

 

45.3 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.0

 

44.7 

 

44.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

 

44.8 

 

44.8 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

48.6

 

46.7 

 

45.9 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

11.1%

 

11.1% 

 

11.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

47.9 

 

52.0 

 

53.5 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 3

3rd-6th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

-0.3%

0.5%

4:30am

GBP

Construction PMI

53.1

54.4

4:30am

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.1B

1.4B

10:00am

USD

Factory Orders m/m

0.1%

-0.6%

Jul 4

 

 

 

 

Jul 5

4:00am

EUR

Final Services PMI

46.8

46.8

4:30am

GBP

Services PMI

53.0

53.3

5:00am

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

0.2%

-1.0%

6:00am

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.2%

-1.9%

7:00am

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

7:45am

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

1.00%

8:15am

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

133K

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Claims

385K

386K

10:00am

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.1

53.7

11:00am

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.1M

Jul 6

3:00am

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

303.8B

3:15am

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

0.0%

4:30am

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.1%

-2.5%

6:00am

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

0.3%

-2.2%

8:30am

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

92K

69K

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 03 08:30 Holland

Jul 03 09:15 Austria 

Jul 03 09:30 Belgium 

Jul 03 09:30 UK 

Jul 03 14:30 UK 

Jul 04 09:30 UK 

Jul 05 08:30 Spain

Jul 05 08:50 France 

Jul 05 15:00 US

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