Gold Fundamental Analysis July 30, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1617.85 holding its gains from earlier in the week as markets have shift the safe haven of the USD and the JPY to gold.

With the poor showing this week in the US, compounded by the lackluster GDP results, traders are hoping that the Fed’s will bring out the big guns at the upcoming meeting of the FOMC on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Commodities failed to build on the prior day’s rally and continue to trade in tight range. Spot gold held steady above the $1600 mark and was on course to register its biggest weekly gains in almost 2 months.  Comments by the European Central Bank chairman Mario Draghi to do everything possible to hold the Euro zone together boosted the Euro currency against the Greenback, pushing prices for the yellow metal above $1600 levels. Base metal complex in London Metal Exchange (LME) traded with a positive bias on optimism that the European Central Bank will act in the coming days to tame off the crisis in the region, which threatens world financial markets. Nymex crude oil edged down after three straight days of gains on profit booking ahead of the GDP figures from the largest crude oil consumer.

Earlier in the day, Spanish unemployment rose to a fresh all-time high of 24.6 percent as recession in the Europe’s fourth largest economy led to job losses.  There were also reports meandering that Bundesbank still opposes ECB bond buys and such remarks come a day after ECB chairman Draghi hinted at more asset purchases.  

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 27

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.2%

 

1.2% 

 

3.6% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.43

 

1.25 

 

1.15 

  

 

 

SEK

 

 

 

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.20% 

 

0.30% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

2.0% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR and GBP

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Jul 30

30th-31st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

0.8%

-0.6%

 

7:00

EUR

Spanish Flash GDP q/q

 

-0.3%

 

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

 

1.3B

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

 

42

 

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

-29

Jul 31

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

 

0.4%

 

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

 

7K

 

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

2.4%

 

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

11.1%

Aug 1

1st-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

1.0%

 

7:15

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

 

41.1

 

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

 

44.6

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

 

48.6

Aug 2

7:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

 

-98.9K

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

 

6.2%

 

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

 

48.1

 

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

48.2

 

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

375B

 

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

 

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

  

Aug 3

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

51.3

 

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 30  09:10  Italy  

Jul 30  10:00  Belgium

Jul 31  00:30  Japan

Jul 31  09:30  Belgium

Aug 01  09:30  Germany

Aug 01  10:00  Norway

Aug 01  13:00  US

Aug 02  08:30  Spain

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