Gold Fundamental Analysis July 31, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1617.65 moving between small gains and losses today. Gold traded little changed, following a five week high in tandem with the Euro last week. Concerns over potential monetary easing from major central banks kept gold above $1620 an ounce. 

Spot Gold softened from its five week high levels after posting its best weekly performance in eight weeks weighed down by weak euro. A firming dollar pushed base metals into a negative territory though hopes of additional stimulus measures injected some optimism into the market, limiting losses. However, nickel was seen rising in LME supported by changes in Indonesia’s export regulations. Tracking movements in LME, base metals in MCX, except for nickel, were trading with a negative bias. Crude oil prices were floating near its one week high levels.

US and European central banks will hold their policy meeting this week and is expected to take suitable actions to prop up the deteriorating economy. US GDP in the second quarter grew only 1.5 percent the weakest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2011 as consumers spend their slowest pace in a year. Meanwhile, high prices and dull seasonal demand restricted physical buying from most Asian countries. ETF demand too dropped, with SPDR the world’s biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund reporting a plunge in their holdings, the level seen since early November. However, CFTC data showed fund managers trimmed their net long positions in US gold futures and options by almost 25 percent in the last week.

Apart from central bank’s policy meeting, investors will closely watch the outcome of US nonfarm payrolls data scheduled to release next Friday

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for July 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 30

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

1.5% 

 

-3.4% 

 

 

 

02:00

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

2.8%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

10:20

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.96%

 

 

 

5.82% 

 

 

 

11:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

11

 

15 

 

42 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR and GBP

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Jul 31

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

 

0.4%

 

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

 

7K

 

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

2.4%

 

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

11.1%

Aug 1

1st-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

1.0%

 

7:15

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

 

41.1

 

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

 

44.6

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

 

48.6

Aug 2

7:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

 

-98.9K

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

 

6.2%

 

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

 

48.1

 

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

48.2

 

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

375B

 

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

 

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

  

Aug 3

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

51.3

 

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 31  00:30  Japan

Jul 31  09:30  Belgium

Aug 01  09:30  Germany

Aug 01  10:00  Norway

Aug 01  13:00  US

Aug 02  08:30  Spain

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.