Gold Fundamental Analysis July 4, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold sailed today, and is trading at this writing at 1616.35 after trying to reach the 1620 level.

Markets have been most positive sentiment, with the US holiday upon us, and gold is reaping the benefits of market expectations for further monetary easing around the globe to stimulate economic growth. The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates on Thursday, and China is expected to relax the minimum reserve requirement ratio for banks again. It seems that investors these day, rely more on central bank rates and monetary policy then they do on good old fundamentals of supply and demand, the more that the central banks pump out the more that speculators can reap.

Rumors are swirling about a global central bank action to jumpstart the global economy, this is possible but improbable.

On Thursday the ECB and the BoE have statements and rate decisions. This week the RBA held rates. Markets are expecting supportive action from the Bank of Japan in their upcoming meeting. And the Fed’s are being pushed into action as the economy has stalled and most all of the eco data is negative. This week issues the Nonfarm payroll report and unemployment figures, if these numbers are under forecast, we will see markets moving to anticipate Fed action.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Releases actual v. forecast July 3, 2012 ( today was almost void of eco data )

Jul. 03

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

27.3%

 

5.1% 

 

-7.6% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50%

 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 4

 

 

 

 

Jul 5

8:00

EUR

Final Services PMI

46.8

46.8

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

53.0

53.3

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

0.2%

-1.0%

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.2%

-1.9%

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

1.00%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

133K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

385K

386K

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.1

53.7

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.1M

Jul 6

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

303.8B

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

0.0%

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.1%

-2.5%

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

0.3%

-2.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

92K

69K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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