Gold Fundamental Analysis July 9, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold has declined so far today by 22.75 and continues to drop, the shiny metal is trading at 1586.65 back on its prior downtrend. As markets absorb today’s jobs report, it is now obvious that the US economy has stalled. IMF chief Christine Lagarde said that the IMF’s forecast of 3.5%growth for global GDP in 2012 will be trimmed back. She said “It is not an enormous variation, but it will be negative.” Equity markets have already done much to trim back their own growth expectations. While most major equity indices are positive for the year, almost all have posted negative returns over the past 3 months

Attempts by the three major central banks to bolster economic growth by loosening the monetary policy has probably failed to appease the market that witnessed liquidation in both commodities and equities. Now, the market attention has turned on to the monthly employment data from the US. Spot gold slipped nearly one per cent by afternoon, stretching the previous session’s losses after trading mostly steady earlier today. Weakness in euro weighed on the sentiments. Euro was hovering near its five week low levels. Surging Spanish borrowing cost in spite of central bank action fueled worries over the worsening financial situation. Spot silver too followed suit. Apprehensions over global economic growth added pressure on base metals and crude oil to move down. Base metals in LME moved into a negative territory after trading mostly steady in the morning session.  Crude oil slid as euphoria over monetary sops provided by the Central banks of China, Euro Zone and the UK waned off and reports that Norwegian government would try to end the ongoing strike amid heightened worries over global economic growth. Nymex and Brent crude oil dropped around 1.5 per cent, retreating from their recent high. In the domestic scenario, bullion, base metals and crude oil traded with a negative bias. Gold and Silver in MCX inched down while crude oil dropped more than one percent

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Reports for July 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

   

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 06

 

UAH

 

 

 

Ukrainian CPI (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

-2.2%

 

-2.1% 

 

-2.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-2.3%

 

-2.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

0.1% 

 

-2.1% 

   

 

 

BRL

 

 

 

Brazilian CPI (YoY) 

4.92%

 

4.95% 

 

4.99% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

7.4%

 

1.0% 

 

-4.4% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

7.3K

 

5.0K 

 

7.7K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

80K

 

90K 

 

77K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.2%

 

8.2% 

 

8.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.2%

 

7.0% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.4 

 

34.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

84K

 

102K 

 

105K 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 9

8:00

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

-28.9

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

1.3%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

-16%

Jul 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

1.5%

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

-0.7%

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-10.1B

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

0.1%

Jul 11

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 09  15:30  Italy

Jul 10  00:30  Japan

Jul 10  08:30  Holland

Jul 10  09:10  Greece 

Jul 10  09:30  UK

Jul 10  14:30  UK

Jul 10  15:30  Italy

Jul 10  17:00  US

Jul 11  09:30  Germany

Jul 11  09:30  Swiss

Jul 11  17:00  US

Jul 12  09:10  Italy

Jul 12  09:30  UK

Jul 12  15:00  US

Jul 12  17:00  US

Jul 13  09:10  Italy

Jul 13  10:00  Belgium

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.