Gold Fundamental Analysis November 20, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold climbed to 1733.95 adding over 19.00 today, as speculators worried over the outcome of negotiations between lawmakers in the US to stop the "fiscal cliff". With the Thanksgiving holiday this week leading into Christmas recess, time until the first of the year is limited.

Although late in the day, US home sales printed above forecast giving the US dollar a bit of strenght. Also tomorrow the EU meeting takes place where hopes are that Greece's current financial problems will be resolved.

Gold is expected to continue to climb as the dollar continues to ease and escalating tensions from the Middle East favor gold prices as investors sort to the safe haven amidst global economic and political uncertainties

Meanwhile, holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose to a record high of 75.421 million ounces on Nov 16th. Brightening economic growth prospects in China lifted base metals in LME. Except for aluminum, other metals rose with copper gaining about one per cent followed by nickel. Hopes that the US will avert a fiscal crisis too supported the sentiments.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data November 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Nov. 19

 

GBP

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

-2.6%

 

 

 

3.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

4.79M 

 

4.75M 

 

4.75M 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Nov. 20

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.865M

0.890M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.840M

0.872M

Nov. 21

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

400K

439K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3338K

3334K

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

84.5

84.9

Nov. 22

01:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

49.50

 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

 

43.7

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

 

46.0

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-19

-23

Nov. 23

07:00

EUR

German GDP (QoQ) 

 

0.2%

 

07:00

EUR

German GDP (YoY) 

 

0.4%

 

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

99.5

100.0

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

106.3

107.3

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

93.2

93.2

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Nov 20 09:30 Spain

Nov 20 10:10 Greece 

Nov 20 10:30 UK 

Nov 21 10:30 Germany 

Nov 21 15:10 Sweden 

Nov 21 16:00 US 

Nov 21 18:00 US 

Nov 22 09:30 Spain 

Nov 22 10:10 Sweden 

Nov 23 16:30 Italy  

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