Gold Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 15, 2012 17:26 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Gold Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold tumbled over 20.00 today to trade at 1738.05. After retail sales data surprised US markets and better than expected Chinese data, shocked investors, it became clear that at this time there is no need for additional stimulus in China or the US causing investors to quickly leave precious metals and look for more risk assets. The metal hit a one-week low on Monday on European debt worries after euro zone officials said Spain could ask for financial aid from the bloc next month. Heavy fund liquidation and technical selling also pressured gold as data showed U.S. retail sales rose in September after Friday’s strong consumer sentiment data.

A string of better U.S. economic indicators including a surprisingly large drop in weekly jobless claims last week called into question the possible extent of the Fed’s latest bond-buying program. Some analysts said it may be curtailed sooner than expected if economic data is positive enough. Also weighing on gold was data showing Chinese inflation was subdued in September while exports had rebounded at nearly twice the rate expected, dampening expectations for easing measures in the world’s second largest economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	3.5%		-0.6%
	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	1.8%	1.4%	-0.7%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-3.6%	-3.6%	-3.5%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.6%	-1.3%	-1.3%
	TRY	Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate	8.40%	8.20%	8.00%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	PLN	Polish CPI (YoY)	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.6%	1.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-6.2	-4.5	-10.4

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 16	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	2.0%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.8%	1.4%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.7%	2.7%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-16.0	-18.2
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%
Oct. 17	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus		1.5%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-15.0K
Oct. 18	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	-0.2%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.1%	2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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