Gold Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

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Gold Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold added a few dollars to trade at 1752.45, as it tries to recover the losses of Monday. Spot gold prices increased 0.2 percent today on the back of rise in risk appetite amongst global market participants. Additionally, weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) also supported an upside in the prices. The news from Europe remains positive that Spain will officially request aid; conversations now seem to be discussing the type of aid it will request. In the US housing starts and building permits soared above forecast, supporting a stronger recovery in the US.

This afternoon news reports said that that striking gold miners in South Africa (6200) will be returning to work, this will increase supply.

Gold finished higher yesterday after the US dollar fell on growing optimism over the prospect of Spain seeking a bailout. On Wednesday, the euro extended gains against the greenback, as Moody’s Investor Service affirmed Spain’s sovereign debt rating at Baa3, with a negative outlook. 

Weakness in the greenback typically helps dollar-denominated commodities as it makes then cheaper for holders of other currencies. But gold’s gains on the back of this were softened as the Commerce Department reported this morning that construction on new houses jumped 15% to an 872,000 annual rate in September – the biggest number since July 2008 and far above Street views. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 17

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.7%

 

1.6% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-4.0K

 

-1.0K 

 

-14.2K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

0.894M

 

0.810M 

 

0.801M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.872M

 

0.770M 

 

0.758M 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain           

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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