Gold Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 24, 2012 15:53 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Gold Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold climbed just a bit showing a little bit of life, to gain 1.00 and move to 1710.45 after Chinese data showed printed above forecast. China’s HSBC flash PMI reported at 49.1% a big improvement over prior months but still below the 50 needed to show expansion.

India’s gold demand has been disappointing so far in 2012 and China looks set to become the top market for gold. Though some are optimistic about Indian demand in the fourth quarter (Q4), it is likely that the country’s gold purchases this year will be sharply lower than they were in 2011. That raises the question of whether India is merely adapting to headwinds or is experiencing a decreased appetite for the metal. This is the beginning of festival and wedding season in India and gold purchases usually skyrocket but have been mildly subdued this year with high prices and taxes.

Gold prices dropped hit a 7-week low holding at just over $1,700 an ounce, as weaker crude oil prices triggered selling ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy statement later in the day. Markets are not expecting anything exciting in the FOMC statement later today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 24	AUD	CPI (QoQ)	1.4%	1.1%	0.5%
	AUD	Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%
	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	49.10		47.90
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	43.5	44.0	42.7
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	45.7	48.0	47.4
	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	100.0	101.5	101.4
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	45.3	46.6	46.1
	EUR	German Current Assessment	107.3	109.8	110.3
	EUR	German Business Expectations	93.2	93.7	93.2
	ZAR	South African CPI (MoM)	0.90%	0.60%	0.20%
	EUR	German 10-Year Bund Auction	1.560%		1.520%
	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-23	-6	-8
	USD	New Home Sales	389K	385K	373K

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 25	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	-0.4%
	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.8%	-1.6%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	7.1%	-13.2%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	388K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3255K	3252K
	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	2.1%	-2.6%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 25 00:30 Japan

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Oct 25 17:00 US

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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