Gold Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

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Gold Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold climbed just a bit showing a little bit of life, to gain 1.00 and move to 1710.45 after Chinese data showed printed above forecast. China’s HSBC flash PMI reported at 49.1% a big improvement over prior months but still below the 50 needed to show expansion.

India’s gold demand has been disappointing so far in 2012 and China looks set to become the top market for gold. Though some are optimistic about Indian demand in the fourth quarter (Q4), it is likely that the country’s gold purchases this year will be sharply lower than they were in 2011. That raises the question of whether India is merely adapting to headwinds or is experiencing a decreased appetite for the metal. This is the beginning of festival and wedding season in India and gold purchases usually skyrocket but have been mildly subdued this year with high prices and taxes.

Gold prices dropped hit a 7-week low holding at just over $1,700 an ounce, as weaker crude oil prices triggered selling ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy statement later in the day. Markets are not expecting anything exciting in the FOMC statement later today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 24

 

AUD

 

 

CPI (QoQ) 

1.4%

 

1.1%

 

0.5% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

49.10

 

 

 

47.90 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

43.5

 

44.0

 

42.7 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.7

 

48.0

 

47.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

100.0

 

101.5

 

101.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.3

 

46.6

 

46.1 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Current Assessment 

107.3

 

109.8

 

110.3 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Business Expectations 

93.2

 

93.7

 

93.2 

 

 

ZAR

 

 

South African CPI (MoM) 

0.90%

 

0.60%

 

0.20% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.560%

 

 

 

1.520% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-23

 

-6

 

-8 

 

 

USD

 

 

New Home Sales 

389K

 

385K

 

373K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 25

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6% 

-0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.8% 

-1.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

7.1% 

-13.2% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

388K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3255K 

3252K 

 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

2.1% 

-2.6% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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