Gold Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

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Gold Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1713.45 adding over 11.00 in today’s session. Gold prices have stabilized today, recovering from the sell‐off witnessed during the last few days. Onset of festive and wedding season in India is also providing an element of support to the physical prices.  Gold prices gained 0.73 percent on the back of rise in the risk appetite amongst global market participants and weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). Further, anticipation of better earnings is also creating bullish market sentiments.

Even despite the US Federal Reserve’s pledge to maintain the economic stimulus plan, sentiments in commodities remained bleak. In the policy meeting, US Federal Reserve kept their rates unchanged and promised to continue the quantitative easing programs until the job markets turned better.  Gold slightly gained along with strong equities, but prices are still trading near seven week low levels. Prices opened near $1700 an ounce, slightly recovered from its previous session losses and are now trading at $1714.30 an ounce. Reviving physical demand from India ahead of the key festive Diwali helped prices. Base metals fell, with aluminum the top loser in LME. LME aluminum dropped almost 0.60 percent October prices plunged more than one percent.  Copper, Zinc and Lead are trading weak in London market as well but Nickel is trading with mild positive bias.  Manufacturing data from the US and China and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision influenced the sentiments

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 25

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

-2.40%

 

-2.20% 

 

-2.60% 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.25%

 

1.25% 

 

1.25% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

2.0%

 

0.8% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

9.9%

 

7.1% 

 

-13.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

369K

 

370K 

 

392K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3254K

 

3255K 

 

3256K 

 

 

MXN

 

 

Mexican Trade Balance 

0.234B

 

-1.318B 

 

-0.979B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

2.1% 

 

-2.6% 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 26 

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9 

5.9 

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.63 

1.67 

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.9% 

1.3% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.0 

83.1 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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