Gold Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

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Gold Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold dipped a drop to trade at 1788.05 on profit taking, after bulls thought they would be able to run through the 1800.00 price point today. Gold prices are trading on flat note at around $1,788 per ounce. However, since the beginning of the session gold prices had witnessed firmness on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets and weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) But, with DX trading on a positive note has erased earlier gains in the gold prices.

Markets were all tuned to the US nonfarm payroll report, which printed a very conflicting story, but would not heighten the FOMC to add additional stimulus. The report showed job creation at forecast at 114K but a revision upwards to last month’s report was extremely high and surprising, but the unexpected event was the drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8%, when markets were expecting an increase to 8.2%.

Gold has held pretty steady since the report.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 05

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian CPI (YoY) 

5.28%

 

5.27% 

 

5.24% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

7.9%

 

-1.0% 

 

-2.8% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Employment Change 

52.1K

 

10.0K 

 

34.3K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

114K

 

113K 

 

142K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.8%

 

8.2% 

 

8.1% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.4%

 

7.0% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.4 

 

34.4 

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

104K

 

130K 

 

97K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08 

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.6%

1.3%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 08 09:10 Norway 

Oct 08 15:30 Italy  

Oct 09 08:30 Holland 

Oct 09 09:30 UK 

Oct 09 14:30 UK 

Oct 09 17:00 US 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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