Gold Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold climbed after the release of the US jobs data to trade at 1727.15
Investors’ focus turned to monthly employment data from the US after the European Central Bank’s rate announcement the previous day. Sentiments were mostly on the greener side as ECB unveiled its unlimited bond buying plan in an attempt to tackle the region’s debt woes. However, the underlying conditions indicated in the proposal raised concerns over its implementation. Bullion and crude oil were seen recovering following a dip while base metals were seen rising ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data. Spot gold was seen rebounding after slipping earlier today, trimming initial losses and stayed near the six month high. Silver followed the suit.
Base metal complex in LME and SHFE rose bolstered by moves by the ECB. Copper, nickel and zinc gained more than 1.5 per cent in LME with copper climbing to its highest since May this year. A similar trend was seen in MCX base metal complex tracking movements in LME.
Once the nonfarm report was released, showing less than expected jobs creation, markets knew this was the piece of data that the FOMC and Mr. Bernanke were waiting for, the last part of the puzzle. Mr. Bernanke speech last week was all about the creation of jobs and the poor performance in the employment market.
Gold soared and the USD fell, as the report was being released. Markets will now wait until the 13th for a final decision.
News from China this morning on actions taken by the PBoC, makes it clear that they are preparing the way to cut rates or offer stimulus after their monthly data is released this weekend.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 7, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 07 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.56B |
|
-0.30B |
|
-0.23B |
||
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
2.9% |
|
2.9% |
|
2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
2.9% |
|
1.5% |
|
-2.4% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
3.2% |
|
2.0% |
|
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (MoM) |
2.0% |
|
1.7% |
|
0.4% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
1.2% |
|
-2.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-0.8% |
|
-2.8% |
|
-3.8% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Building Permits (MoM) |
-2.3% |
|
-2.0% |
|
-2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Employment Change |
34.3K |
|
10.0K |
|
-30.4K |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Labor Productivity (QoQ) |
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Nonfarm Payrolls |
96K |
|
125K |
|
141K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
|
8.3% |
|
8.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
|
7.3% |
|
7.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
|
34.5 |
|
34.4 |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
103K |
|
138K |
|
162K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 09 |
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
|
2.0% |
|
1.8% |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
|
-3.3% |
|
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
|
0.5% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
|
20.4% |
|
20.4% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
|
9.1% |
|
9.2% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
|
13.2% |
|
13.1% |
||
|
Sep. 10 |
00:50 |
|
JPY |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
02:00 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Trade Balance |
|
19.80B |
|
25.10B |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Home Loans (MoM) |
|
|
|
1.3% |
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 10 09:30 Germany
Sep 10 15:30 Italy
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
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