Gold Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold climbed after the release of the US jobs data to trade at 1727.15

Investors’ focus turned to monthly employment data from the US after the European Central Bank’s rate announcement the previous day.  Sentiments were mostly on the greener side as ECB unveiled its unlimited bond buying plan in an attempt to tackle the region’s debt woes. However, the underlying conditions indicated in the proposal raised concerns over its implementation. Bullion and crude oil were seen recovering following a dip while base metals were seen rising ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data. Spot gold was seen rebounding after slipping earlier today, trimming initial losses and stayed near the six month high. Silver followed the suit.

Base metal complex in LME and SHFE rose bolstered by moves by the ECB. Copper, nickel and zinc gained more than 1.5 per cent in LME with copper climbing to its highest since May this year. A similar trend was seen in MCX base metal complex tracking movements in LME.

Once the nonfarm report was released, showing less than expected jobs creation, markets knew this was the piece of data that the FOMC and Mr. Bernanke were waiting for, the last part of the puzzle. Mr. Bernanke speech last week was all about the creation of jobs and the poor performance in the employment market.

Gold soared and the USD fell, as the report was being released. Markets will now wait until the 13th for a final decision.

News from China this morning on actions taken by the PBoC, makes it clear that they are preparing the way to cut rates or offer stimulus after their monthly data is released this weekend.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 7, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 07

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.56B

 

-0.30B 

 

-0.23B 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

 

2.9% 

 

2.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.9%

 

1.5% 

 

-2.4% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

3.2%

 

2.0% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

2.0%

 

1.7% 

 

0.4% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.2% 

 

-2.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-2.8% 

 

-3.8% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

-2.3%

 

-2.0% 

 

-2.5% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Employment Change 

34.3K

 

10.0K 

 

-30.4K 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Labor Productivity (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

96K

 

125K 

 

141K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

 

8.3% 

 

8.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.3%

 

7.3% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

 

34.5 

 

34.4 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

103K

 

138K 

 

162K 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 09

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

2.0% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

 

-3.3% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

 

20.4% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

 

9.1% 

 

9.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

13.2% 

 

13.1% 

   

Sep. 10

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

 

19.80B 

 

25.10B 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

 

 

1.3% 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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