Gold Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold was directionless today, showing a small loss that can only be accounted for as profit taking since gold climbed last week from 1685 to 1735 on the back of the non-farm payroll report and the hopes of Fed stimulus. At this time gold is trading at 1730.65

While European Central Bank’s moves the previous week had already set a momentum in the market, weak economic indicators from the US and China have refueled further hopes of monetary easing by the leading central banks to shore up their respective economies. Base metal extended their previous session’s rally while precious metals were hovering near their recent highs in the international market. In LME, base metals advanced, rising to their multi month highs bolstered by reports that China has approved infrastructure projects of about $150 billion amidst expectations of further monetary easing by the major central banks.

Chinese industrial output released on Sunday saw it rising less than expected in August while inflation remained steady. Tracking rally in the major LME, base metal jumped in MCX too with nickel gaining the most.  Chinese trade balance data indicated that the nation’s imports of crude oil dropped 15.7 per cent in August. Meanwhile, precious metals were seen steadying near the recent high after rising steeply the previous session. Spot gold was hovering near six and a half month high while spot silver was just shy of testing $34 an ounce earlier today before taking a dip.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 10

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.34T

 

0.39T 

 

0.77T 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP Price Index (YoY) 

-0.9%

 

-1.1% 

 

-1.1% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Bank Lending (YoY) 

0.9%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

26.66B

 

19.80B 

 

25.10B 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Exports (YoY) 

2.70%

 

3.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

0.1% 

 

1.0% 

 

Chinese Economic Data released on September 9, 2012 actual v. forecast ( this is important )

Sep. 09

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.5%

 

-3.3% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.2%

 

20.4% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

8.9%

 

9.1% 

 

9.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.2%

 

13.2% 

 

13.1% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 11

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

 -22%

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

 -9.0B

-10.1B 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.7B 

-42.9B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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