Gold Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 10, 2012 15:29 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold was directionless today, showing a small loss that can only be accounted for as profit taking since gold climbed last week from 1685 to 1735 on the back of the non-farm payroll report and the hopes of Fed stimulus. At this time gold is trading at 1730.65

While European Central Bank’s moves the previous week had already set a momentum in the market, weak economic indicators from the US and China have refueled further hopes of monetary easing by the leading central banks to shore up their respective economies. Base metal extended their previous session’s rally while precious metals were hovering near their recent highs in the international market. In LME, base metals advanced, rising to their multi month highs bolstered by reports that China has approved infrastructure projects of about $150 billion amidst expectations of further monetary easing by the major central banks.

Chinese industrial output released on Sunday saw it rising less than expected in August while inflation remained steady. Tracking rally in the major LME, base metal jumped in MCX too with nickel gaining the most. Chinese trade balance data indicated that the nation’s imports of crude oil dropped 15.7 per cent in August. Meanwhile, precious metals were seen steadying near the recent high after rising steeply the previous session. Spot gold was hovering near six and a half month high while spot silver was just shy of testing $34 an ounce earlier today before taking a dip.

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Economic Data September 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 10	00:50	JPY	Adjusted Current Account	0.34T	0.39T	0.77T
	00:50	JPY	GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%
	00:50	JPY	GDP Price Index (YoY)	-0.9%	-1.1%	-1.1%
	00:50	JPY	Bank Lending (YoY)	0.9%		0.7%
	02:00	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	26.66B	19.80B	25.10B
	02:00	CNY	Chinese Exports (YoY)	2.70%	3.00%	1.00%
	02:30	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	-1.0%	0.1%	1.0%

Chinese Economic Data released on September 9, 2012 actual v. forecast ( this is important )

Sep. 09