Gold Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold continued to climb on the back of the weakened USD and on the positive news from the German Courts, the euro traded up in today’s session. With traders all but sure that tomorrow will bring news of stimulus from the FOMC. Gold is trading at 1734.05
Fresh central bank actions probably lift the inflation outlook and uphold bullion on a long run.
Abating US currency too supported the bullish sentiments. Dollar index plunged to a four month low yesterday after the rating agency Moody’s warned the US about potential rate cutting. At the same time, physical demand from India is seen silent owing to record high prices despite the key marriage season. Exchange traded demand for gold is still at the peak levels with the SPDR gold trust, the world’s top gold ETF remained at six month high more than three percent, compared to last month.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Events forecast vs. actual September 12, 2012
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 12 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
|
3.2% |
|
3.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
1.60% |
|
|
|
-2.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
0.5% |
|
-0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Industrial Production (YoY) |
0.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
-1.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
|
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.5% |
|
1.6% |
|
1.8% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Claimant Count Change |
-15.0K |
|
0.5K |
|
-13.6K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
1.4% |
|
-0.7% |
Upcoming Economic Events (today is the FOMC statement)
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
|
09:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
1.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
370K |
|
365K |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3318K |
|
3322K |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
17:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
|
0.25% |
|
|
|
|
17:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
FOMC Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19:00 |
|
USD |
|
|
Federal Budget Balance |
-155.0B |
|
-69.6B |
|
|
|
|
19:15 |
|
USD |
|
|
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|
|
|
Government Bond Auctions
Date and Country
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
Sep 13 00:30 Japan
Sep 13 09:10 Italy
Sep 13 09:30 UK
Sep 13 15:00 US
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