Gold Fundamental Analysis September 14, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continues to climb as traders believe that the Fed will offer up a large stimlus package today. Earlier polls from Reuters and Bloomberg both registered over an 80% chance that the Feds would offer some stimulus today and dropped to 62% that they would offer a very large package. Gold is holding at 1732.65

The FOMC statement is due in the next few hours from Mr. Bernanke and at this time, markets are quiet and are sitting waiting for work from the Fed chief.  The market place has a slight bias that the Fed will announce QE3, or some sort of fresh monetary stimulus package, on Thursday. But even if the Fed does not make a stimulus move on Thursday, the majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank will act to ease monetary policy in the coming weeks. No significant action at all by the Fed Thursday would disappoint many commodity and stock market bulls and could put downside price pressure on many markets, including the precious metals.

Elsewhere the Italian government had a successful long-term bond offering, with most agreeing the debt sale went well due to the European Union’s recent proclamations to support governments’ debt sales by having the European Central Bank sop up any excess debt. Also, Greece’s unemployment rate rose to a record high of 23.6% in the second quarter.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

 

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 13

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

 

2.75% 

 

3.00% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

 

 

1.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

370K 

 

365K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

3318K 

 

3322K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

 

 

1.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

 

 

2.6% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Sep. 14

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

2.6% 

 

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.8% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.6% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.1 

74.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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