Gold Fundamental Analysis September 17, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1769.25 off by just a few cents, as markets adjusted to the news from the FOMC and digested Mr. Bernanke’s statement and explanations. With markets getting a bit more than expected gold broke well above expectations and today, traders took profits.

Spot gold prices increased around 0.4 percent on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets along with weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). Additionally, statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke of buying back long term Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) of $40 billion monthly also supported upside in the prices.

While market are already riding high on the boost received from the Euro Zone in the form of favorable verdicts on ESM from the German constitutional court, it received another fillip from the US Federal Reserve yesterday in which the central bank unveiled a plan to buy mortgage-backed securities that will pump $40 billion into the economy. Commodities and equities spiked to multi month highs while the dollar index dwindled to a four month low. 

Precious metals in the International market rose to their highest in around six months. Spot gold extended the previous session’s two percent gains as stimulus measures fanned worries over higher inflation.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 14

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

-1.2% 

 

-1.2% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

 

0.6% 

 

0.8% 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-1.50%

 

1.00% 

 

-0.80% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.7% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.4% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.1% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Event

 

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 18

09:30

GBP

 

CPI (YoY) 

 

 

2.6% 

 

09:30

GBP

 

CPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.1% 

 

10:00

EUR

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

 

-25.5 

-25.5 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia

Sep 17 10:00 Norway 

Sep 18 08:30 Spain 

Sep 18 09:10 Greece 

Sep 18 09:30 Belgium 

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 19 09:30 Germany 

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal 

Sep 19 10:00 Norway

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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