Gold Fundamental Analysis September 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1769.45 holding pretty steady today, as traders try to decipher market movements and central bank policy. Today, the Bank of Japan, introduced additional monetary stimulus, surprising traders. Policymakers have decided to expand the BoJ balance sheet, with asset purchases of ¥10trn that will include both treasury bills and JGBs.  The purchases are part of an expansion to the existing Asset Purchase Program and raise the total to ¥80trn, with expectations of completion by Q4 2013

Traders are also closely watching eco data being released in China, as the PBoC has also been introducing programs and stimulus to help reach their 2012 forecast.

Meantime, a Chinese finance ministry researcher said the risks for inflation in China exceed the need for more economic stimulus. There is a slew of fresh economic data coming out of China on Thursday. The market place worries the China economic data may show significant weakness. The Chinese economic data Thursday looks to be the most important data of the week for the market place.

The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading Wednesday, on more short covering in a bear market. The greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old downtrend line remains in place on the daily bar chart.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 19

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

0.803M

 

0.796M 

 

0.811M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.750M

 

0.765M 

 

0.733M 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 20 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.4 

46.0 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.3 

44.7 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7% 

2.8% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-21 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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