Gold Fundamental Analysis September 21, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1761.85 down 7.45. Gold held firm near $1770 an ounce, buoyed by a strong dollar following actions taken by various central banks to urge growth in their economies. In an unexpected move, Bank of Japan increased the size of their asset prices to tackle slowing down of domestic economy, which supported the dollar.
However, investors are anticipating more monetary actions from China in the face of recent bleak economic releases. Manufacturing activity in China contracted in September, a straight 11th month fall but slightly at a milder pace than August. The recent economic developments pushed the dollar index higher from its multi-month lows while the Euro eased down. The US Fed’s third round of quantitative easing and the bond buying plan by European Central Bank raised global inflation outlook. Concerns over inflation probably support bullion due to its inflation hedge appeal. Physical demand from India is expected to pick up in the coming sessions amid the key festive Diwali and marriage season. At the same time, investment demand for gold has been strong for the last week with the ETF holdings lifting to its all time highs.
As the dollar continued to strengthen on upbeat eco data with the Philly Fed coming in well above forecast and unemployment claims declining, traders began to think that a recovery was underway.
As the USD continued to strengthen some speculators sold off gold to take profits.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 20, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 20 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.47T |
|
-0.37T |
|
-0.37T |
||
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
47.80 |
|
|
|
47.60 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Manufacturing PMI |
42.6 |
|
46.4 |
|
46.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Manufacturing PMI |
47.3 |
|
45.3 |
|
44.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
46.0 |
|
45.4 |
|
45.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (YoY) |
2.7% |
|
2.7% |
|
2.3% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-8 |
|
-15 |
|
-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
382K |
|
375K |
|
385K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3272K |
|
3300K |
|
3304K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
-1.9 |
|
-4.0 |
|
-7.1 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
There are no top tier eco data releases due in Europe or the US on the 21st.
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