Gold Fundamental Analysis September 24, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold climbed adding over 18.00 dollars today, to trade at 1786.35 on a combination of news from China that they PBoC had lowered rates to increase liquidity in on ongoing operation. Also on rumors that Spain has officially asked for a bailout.

Gold ticked higher retreating from the previous session’s liquidation pressure and  is now  hovering near $1770 an ounce. Economic stimulus measures taken by various central banks around the globe benefited bullion. After the US Fed and European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan increased the size of their asset purchases to raise the pace of domestic economic growth. Economic stimulus always supported bullion due to its inflation hedge appeal.

At the same time, contracting manufacturing activities in US, Europe and China is signaling chances of more stimulus measures. The dollar index eased after rebounding from its multi-month lows while the Euro slightly recovered. Yesterday’s US jobless claims and manufacturing data influenced the dollar index as well. Meanwhile, reviving interest in bullion has attracted more investors into Exchange Traded Funds. The world’s top gold exchange traded fund the SPDR Gold trust reported their current holdings are the highest level since August. Physical demand from India is expected to pick up in the coming session amid the key festive Diwali and marriage based demand.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 21, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 21

 

AUD

 

 

CB Leading Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

 

 

0.5% 

   

 

 

NZD

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY) 

1.0%

 

 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Dutch Consumer Spending 

-1.50

 

 

 

-0.50 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

12.4B

 

13.3B 

 

-1.9B 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.2%

 

1.0% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Belgium NBB Business Climate 

-11.6

 

-11.2 

 

-11.8 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR ( there are no USD or CAD events )

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 24

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.1 

102.3 

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

 

111.2 

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

 

94.2 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 24 09:10 Norway 

Sep 24 09:30 Germany 

Sep 24 10:00 Belgium 

Sep 24 15:30 Italy  

Sep 25 08:30 Holland 

Sep 25 08:30 Spain 

Sep 25 09:10 Italy  

Sep 25 14:30 UK 

Sep 25 17:00 US 

Sep 26 09:10 Italy  

Sep 26 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 26 09:00 Germany 

Sep 26 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 26 17:00 US 

Sep 27 00:30 Japan 

Sep 27 09:10 Italy  

Sep 27 17:00 US 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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