Gold Fundamental Analysis September 28, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1779.25 moving up in late US trading on negative durable goods data and falling pending home sales. Earlier in the day gold was down following continued worries in the Euro zone which drifted lower the zone’s currency to a two week low. Anti-austerity protests in Greece and Spain raised investors’ concerns over the zone’s ability to contain the debt crisis. Recent moves in gold were in tandem with the moves in the Euro and correlation between both of them is above 0.96, the highest level since the start of this year.
Earlier, comments from the Fed official Plosser regarding the third round of quantitative easing and ECB President Mario Draghi’s assurance of the need for new asset purchase program weighed on bullion. Meanwhile, weak industrial data from China raised expectations of stepping up monetary easing measures to prop up the economy that could again support the bullion.
The world’s largest gold backed exchange traded fund, the SPDR gold trust has posted its biggest one day drop in their holdings since May yesterday, while investment demand for gold is still at peak levels. Increased activities by various central banks are also supporting the prices. Physical demand from Asia remains steady but is likely to pick up in the coming months owing to festive and marriage based demand from the key consumer, India.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 27, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 27 |
|
DKK |
|
|
Danish Unemployment Rate |
4.70% |
|
4.70% |
|
4.70% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
|
6.8% |
|
6.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Change |
9K |
|
10K |
|
11K |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Business Investment (QoQ) |
0.9% |
|
-1.5% |
|
-1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Current Account |
-20.8B |
|
-12.4B |
|
-15.4B |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.4% |
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (YoY) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
5.24% |
|
|
|
5.82% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-1.6% |
|
0.3% |
|
-1.3% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-13.2% |
|
-5.0% |
|
3.3% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
359K |
|
378K |
|
385K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
1.3% |
|
1.7% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3271K |
|
3285K |
|
3275K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
-2.6% |
|
-0.7% |
|
2.6% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 28 |
06:30 |
EUR |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
08:00 |
CHF |
1.57 |
1.57 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
2.6% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
52.9 |
53.0 |
|
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
78.9 |
79.2 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 01 10:00 Norway
Oct 02 09:15 Austria
Oct 02 09:30 Belgium
Oct 02 09:30 UK
Oct 02 14:30 UK
Oct 03 09:10 Sweden
Oct 03 10:00 Norway
Oct 04 08:30 Spain
Oct 04 08:50 France
Oct 04 15:00 US
Oct 05 15:30 Italy
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