Gold Fundamental Analysis September 28, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1779.25 moving up in late US trading on negative durable goods data and falling pending home sales. Earlier in the day gold was down following continued worries in the Euro zone which drifted lower the zone’s currency to a two week low. Anti-austerity protests in Greece and Spain raised investors’ concerns over the zone’s ability to contain the debt crisis.  Recent moves in gold were in tandem with the moves in the Euro and correlation between both of them is above 0.96, the highest level since the start of this year.

Earlier, comments from the Fed official Plosser regarding the third round of quantitative easing and ECB President Mario Draghi’s assurance of the need for new asset purchase program weighed on bullion. Meanwhile, weak industrial data from China raised expectations of stepping up monetary easing measures to prop up the economy that could again support the bullion.

The world’s largest gold backed exchange traded fund, the SPDR gold trust has posted its biggest one day drop in their holdings since May yesterday, while investment demand for gold is still at peak levels. Increased activities by various central banks are also supporting the prices. Physical demand from Asia remains steady but is likely to pick up in the coming months owing to festive and marriage based demand from the key consumer, India.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 27

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.70%

 

4.70% 

 

4.70% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

10K 

 

11K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

-1.5% 

 

-1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Current Account 

-20.8B

 

-12.4B 

 

-15.4B 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.24%

 

 

 

5.82% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-1.3% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-13.2%

 

-5.0% 

 

3.3% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

359K

 

378K 

 

385K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.3%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K

 

3285K 

 

3275K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 28

06:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

0.0%

 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.57

1.57

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

2.6%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.0%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

0.4%

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

52.9

53.0

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.9

79.2

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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