Gold Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold gained in front of Mr. Bernanke’s Jackson Hole address and held on to these gains after. Mr. Bernanke did commit to assist from the Feds and offered my tools and policies that he was willing to offer, but did not make a commitment or a guarantee or suggest a date, leaving markets waiting until the September 13th FOMC meeting.
There are several stories that are upsetting the markets and should weigh on the euro and gold over the next few days.
Germany’s Merkel is rumors to have asked Italy’s Monti to refrain from requesting a bailout until a later date. The efforts by Merkel are reportedly aimed at calming an internal crisis at the Bundesbank, whose central bank chief, Jens Weidmann, is strongly opposed to any action by the European Central Bank to buy Spanish or Italian government bonds. German newspaper Bild reported in its online edition on Friday that Weidmann has been considering his resignation in recent weeks.
Gold is trading at 1667.25 adding a few dollars since Mr. Bernanke’s speech, as markets are betting that we will see stimulus at the next FOMC meeting and also at the September 6th ECB meet.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Aug. 31 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) |
0.3% |
|
0.5% |
|
1.4% |
||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
4.3% |
|
4.3% |
|
4.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.6% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.2% |
|
1.7% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian GDP (YoY) |
5.5% |
|
5.3% |
|
5.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
1.3% |
|
0.1% |
|
-0.8% |
||
|
|
|
NOK |
|
|
Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.20% |
|
0.50% |
|
-1.40% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.5% |
|
2.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
11.3% |
|
11.3% |
|
11.3% |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Chicago PMI |
53.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
53.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
74.3 |
|
73.6 |
|
73.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and US ( no CAD events)
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
|
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep 03 |
08:15 |
|
CHF |
|
|
|
|
3.7% |
|
||
|
|
08:30 |
|
CHF |
|
|
|
|
48.6 |
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 03 09:10 Norway Bond auction
Sep 03 10:00 Belgium OLO auction
Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs
Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction
Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills
Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep
Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction
Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction
Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs
Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction
Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
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EUR/USD Mid-Session Analysis for June 18, 2013
GBP/USD Forecast June 19, 2013, Technical Analysis
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