Gold Fundamental Analysis September 6, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading down slightly at this writing but has been holding between small gains and losses ahead of tomorrow’s ECB statement. Although a good deal of Mr. Draghi’s plans were leaked to the news already today. At this time gold is trading at 1691.65. Gold traded just shy of $1700 an ounce as the bleak economic releases around the globe bolstered expectations of imminent monetary stimulus actions.

US manufacturing activity contracted yet again to its weakest level in more than three months in August. Contracting manufacturing activity from the Europe and China earlier raised hopes of more central bank actions. Earlier, US Fed Chairman commented that the US job markets are under ‘grave’ stage pushing hopes of fresh quantitative easing and drove investors to speculate in bullion. Loosening monetary policy always attract investors to bullion due to its inflation hedge appeal. At the same time, ECB has scheduled a meeting on Thursday to take decision to cut rates and boost economy, but the central bank is under pressure due to current fragile economic situation.

Previously, Moody’s Investor Services changed the outlook of European Union to negative and warned chances of more downgrades. However, bullion investors probably take a cautious stand before the outcome of ECB meeting, and the most important US Nonfarm pay rolls data due to release this weekend. Meanwhile, the holdings of gold ETF gained further to its highest level since mid-march as per the latest update

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 05

 

AUD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

0.7% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.420%

 

 

 

1.420% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

 

1.8% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 06

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.2% 

-1.7% 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

0.50% 

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B 

375B 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

0.75% 

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

140K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

374K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3315K 

3316K 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

52.5 

52.6 

Sep. 07

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-24% 

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5% 

-2.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

2.0% 

-2.9% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.7% 

1.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.2% 

-2.4% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.8% 

-4.3% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

-0.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 06 00:30 Japan 

Sep 06 08:30 Spain 

Sep 06 08:50 France 

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 06 15:00 US 

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30   Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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