Gold Fundamental Analysis September 6, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading down slightly at this writing but has been holding between small gains and losses ahead of tomorrow’s ECB statement. Although a good deal of Mr. Draghi’s plans were leaked to the news already today. At this time gold is trading at 1691.65. Gold traded just shy of $1700 an ounce as the bleak economic releases around the globe bolstered expectations of imminent monetary stimulus actions.
US manufacturing activity contracted yet again to its weakest level in more than three months in August. Contracting manufacturing activity from the Europe and China earlier raised hopes of more central bank actions. Earlier, US Fed Chairman commented that the US job markets are under ‘grave’ stage pushing hopes of fresh quantitative easing and drove investors to speculate in bullion. Loosening monetary policy always attract investors to bullion due to its inflation hedge appeal. At the same time, ECB has scheduled a meeting on Thursday to take decision to cut rates and boost economy, but the central bank is under pressure due to current fragile economic situation.
Previously, Moody’s Investor Services changed the outlook of European Union to negative and warned chances of more downgrades. However, bullion investors probably take a cautious stand before the outcome of ECB meeting, and the most important US Nonfarm pay rolls data due to release this weekend. Meanwhile, the holdings of gold ETF gained further to its highest level since mid-march as per the latest update
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 5, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 05 |
|
AUD |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.6% |
|
0.7% |
|
1.4% |
||
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German 10-Year Bund Auction |
1.420% |
|
|
|
1.420% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
2.2% |
|
1.8% |
|
1.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
1.5% |
|
1.5% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
1.00% |
|
1.00% |
|
1.00% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 06 |
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-1.7% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
375B |
375B |
|
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
140K |
163K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
370K |
374K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
3315K |
3316K |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
52.5 |
52.6 |
|
|
Sep. 07 |
00:01 |
GBP |
-24% |
-24% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
-2.5% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
2.0% |
-2.9% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.7% |
1.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-2.8% |
-4.3% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-0.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
124K |
163K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
142K |
172K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 06 00:30 Japan
Sep 06 08:30 Spain
Sep 06 08:50 France
Sep 06 09:10 Sweden
Sep 06 15:00 US
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
Sep 10 09:30 Germany
Sep 10 15:30 Italy
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
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