Gold Fundamental Analysis September 7, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1707.45 up 15.85 at this writing. Gold continued to be strong, Mr. Draghi’s new bond buying program should help the ailing nations of the EU to handle their debt and to jumpstart their economies. Although the strongest support came from lackluster US jobs data, which gave a boost to the hopes and dreams of stimulus from the FOMC.
Gold held broke above the psychological level of $1700 an ounce as cautious investors impeded fresh bets on bullion ahead the key ECB policy meeting and US non-farm payrolls data.
Meanwhile, the key focus of market would be towards the US nonfarm payrolls data in which a lesser than expected job figures could reinforce chances of an imminent quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve. US Fed’s concerns over the job market and recent bleak economic data possibly weigh on the sentiments. Prospects of launching programs of buying bonds of Italy and Spain and other steps to lower borrowing costs also supported bullion. At the same time, holdings of gold Exchange-Traded Funds gained further to its highest level since mid-march while the physical demand from Asia remained steady.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 6, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 06 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Employment Change |
-8.8K |
|
5.0K |
|
11.7K |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
|
5.3% |
|
5.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.7% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
0.5% |
|
0.2% |
|
-1.6% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
BOE QE Total |
375B |
|
375B |
|
375B |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.75% |
|
0.75% |
|
0.75% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
201K |
|
140K |
|
173K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
365K |
|
370K |
|
377K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3322K |
|
3315K |
|
3328K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
53.7 |
|
52.5 |
|
52.6 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 07 |
00:01 |
GBP |
-24% |
-24% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
-2.5% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
2.0% |
-2.9% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.7% |
1.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-2.8% |
-4.3% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-0.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
124K |
163K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
142K |
172K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
Sep 10 09:30 Germany
Sep 10 15:30 Italy
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
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