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Gold Fundamental Forecast – February 9, 2016

By:
Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold continued to climb today as oil plummeted. China is on vacation all week so volatility is expected to be lower. Gold

Gold Rises upon Market Uncertainty

gold monday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued to climb today as oil plummeted. China is on vacation all week so volatility is expected to be lower. Gold added opened up over $15 to trade at 1173.50 as traders worried about the fall in oil prices. The U.S. Non-farm Payrolls came out soft last Friday although average hourly earnings rose more than expected and wage rate held steady pace of growth. Unemployment rate edged down, leading to better participation rate, with gains in manufacturing sector. These positive features of NFP report helped to counter the negative effect of a soft headline number, which by the way, was within U.S. Fed’s acceptable range.

The ensuing implied hawkish view was not supportive to risk assets and bullion. Gold price halted the climb as Asian equities followed US stocks on a dip. However gold likely stays elevated throughout this week while thin trade promotes consolidation.

Gold price paused after it broke September and August highs following a mixed NFP report. This week’s thin trade implies a consolidation across markets including gold. It is at a safe distance above the support trend line, with September high now turned into a support level at 1156.6 and the next resistance level at 1175.00.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
    China – Lunar New Year
    New Zealand – Waitangi
  JPY Adjusted Current Account  1.64T   1.42T  
  JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Dec)  0.96T 0.987T 1.144T

 

gold

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  China – Lunar New Year
  AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)     -2.7%  
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)   0.4% 0.1%  
  AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jan)     3  
  EUR German Industrial Production (MoM)   0.4% -0.3%  
  EUR German Trade Balance (Dec)   20.2B 19.7B  
  GBP Trade Balance (Dec)   -10.35B -10.64B  
  GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec)   -2.55B -2.45B  
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)   5.400M 5.431M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 08 16:20 Italy Details of bond auction

Feb 09 11:00 Netherlands Holds DSL auction

Feb 09 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2026 Gilt linker auction

Feb 09 n/a UK Details of Gilt auction on Feb 17

Feb 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Feb 10 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Mar 2018 Schatz

Feb 10 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on Feb 17

Feb 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction

Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18

Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb

 

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