Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

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Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

Outlook and Recommendation

Gold closed the month on weakness at 1597.15 after climbing to 1615 on market worries over the eurozone bailout of Cyprus. Next week will be very touchy. Monday will be the first day of a new quarter, and a lot depends on what demand we may have from the funds and their participation.  Right now you have poor economic data from the end of last week, the eurozone in turmoil and low interest rates. All of that would be supportive for gold, but we don’t have inflation, so I could see gold being range-bound to a little lower next week

Maximum: 1615.80

Minimum: 1560.60

Difference: 55.20

Average: 1592.48

Rev. %: 5.1

The ECB and the BoE along with the RBA and the BoJ are all meeting this coming week and could have major implications on gold prices. This added to stress over Italian politics could see some safe haven trading returning to the markets. Cyprus is not done yet either as contagion from the two euros will slowly seep into the eurozone banking system. Value of the euro in Cyprus is no longer the same as free flowing euros in the rest of the eurozone.

Looking  into April, the Commodity Traders Almanac said gold can be vulnerable to selling next month, continuing the seasonal decline that generally begins in January. “April tends to see tax-related selling pressure on gold prices along with other financial markets, specifically the U.S. stock markets, and more predominantly, in the technology sector…” the almanac said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank – Fed Reserve

Date of next meeting or last meeting: May 01, 2013

Current Rate: 0.00-0.25%

gold BNS April

Economic events for the month of April affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Apr 1

9:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.2

54.2

Apr 2

3:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

48.9

47.9

Apr 3

3:30

GBP

Construction PMI

47.7

46.8

 

7:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

203K

198K

 

9:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

55.9

56.0

Apr 4

3:30

GBP

Services PMI

51.4

51.8

 

6:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

   

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

6:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

   

USD

Unemployment Claims

354K

357K

Apr 5

2:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

430.0B

 

7:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

201K

236K

   

USD

Trade Balance

-44.6B

-44.4B

Apr 8

20:30

CNY

CPI y/y

 

3.2%

Apr 9

2:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.3%

 

3:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

-1.5%

Apr 12

7:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

1.0%

   

USD

PPI m/m

 

0.7%

   

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

1.1%

 

8:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

78.6

Apr 16

3:30

GBP

CPI y/y

   
 

7:30

USD

Building Permits

   
   

USD

Core CPI m/m

   

Apr 17

3:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

   
 

4:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

   

Apr 18

3:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

   
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

9:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   

Apr 22

9:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

   
 

20:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

Apr 23

2:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

2:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

9:00

USD

New Home Sales

   

Apr 24

3:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

   
 

7:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

   

Apr 25

3:30

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

   
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

Apr 26

7:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

0.4%

Apr 29

9:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

   

Apr 30

9:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

   
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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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