Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast July 2012

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Outlook and Recommendation

Gold spent most of the moving back to its downtrend heading towards the 1520 level, at the end of the month economists were projecting this to be the worst month and quarter for gold, until markets reversed on statements from the EU Summit about an immediate plan of action to support the EU economies and protect the banks and global contagion. Gold closed the month at 1597.85 adding close to 3% on the last trading day of the month.

Highest: 1642.15

Lowest: 1546.35

Difference: 95.80

Average: 1600.10

Change %: 2.28

In the early dawn hour’s right after the announcement markets soared as commodities skyrocketed.

Earlier in the month the USD had been the safe haven favorite in spite of negative eco data, but with the FOMC meeting drawing close and speculators almost sure the Ben Bernanke would add more stimulus the markets turned to gold pushing it up for one last bump, only to be disappointed.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank Name: Fed Reserve

Date of next meeting or last meeting: Jul 31

Current Rate: 0-0.25 % (- 0.75)

Statement highlights of last meeting: To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

Economic events for the month of July affecting USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Mon

Jul 2

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

52.1

53.5

Thu

Jul 5

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

133K

USD

Unemployment Claims

385K

386K

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.1

53.7

Fri

Jul 6

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

92K

69K

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

Wed

Jul 11

USD

Trade Balance

 

-50.1B

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

  

Thu

Jul 12

USD

Unemployment Claims

  

Fri

Jul 13

USD

PPI m/m

 

-1.0%

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

73.2

Mon

Jul 16

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

  

USD

Retail Sales m/m

  

Tue

Jul 17

ALL

G7 Meetings

  

USD

Core CPI m/m

  

Wed

Jul 18

USD

Building Permits

  

Thu

Jul 19

USD

Unemployment Claims

  

USD

Unemployment Claims

  

USD

Existing Home Sales

  

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

  

Wed

Jul 25

USD

New Home Sales

  

Thu

Jul 26

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

  

USD

Unemployment Claims

  

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

  

Fri

Jul 27

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

1.9%

Tue

Jul 31

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

  

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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