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Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast – July 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Jul 1, 2016, 20:08 UTC

Gold ended the month on a high note at 1325.50 showing a gain of 10% for the month with a year to date increase of 26% after the Brexit vote sent markets

Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast – July 2016

Gold ended the month on a high note at 1325.50 showing a gain of 10% for the month with a year to date increase of 26% after the Brexit vote sent markets running for safety.  Gold steadied on Thursday as the other markets showed signs of stabilizing, but remained on track for its biggest monthly rise since February in the wake of last week’s vote in Britain to quit the European Union.

Shares, bonds and currencies plunged on Friday after the British referendum sent investors scurrying for the perceived safety of gold, which leapt to its highest in nearly two years at $1,358.20 an ounce.

But the immediate market flurry over the vote settled on Thursday, with world stock markets rising for a third day and bond yields hovering around record lows.

Silver is heading for its best quarter in nearly four years, up about 22 percent. Silver was 2.7 percent higher at $18.76 an ounce, having hit $18.80, the highest since September 2014.

The gold-silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, fell to its lowest in 13 months at 70.4. “Silver is clearly profiting from two different sides at once just now: from the higher gold price on the one hand and from firm base metal prices on the other, as silver is used for the most part in industry,” Commerzbank said in a note.

This month will be all about Brexit conversations, UK politics, The FOMC meeting and the Bank of Japan action.

Our forecast for July 2016: 1310-1350

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

gold june

Major Economic Events – July 2016
Date Country Name Volatility Previous
7/1/2016 U.S.A ISM Manufacturing PMI 3 51.3
7/4/2016 Eurozone ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
7/5/2016 Australia RBA Rate Statement 3
7/5/2016 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision 3 1.75
7/6/2016 Eurozone Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting 3
7/6/2016 U.S.A FOMC Minutes 3
7/7/2016 U.K. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) 3 0.5
7/8/2016 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) 3 3.5
7/8/2016 U.S.A Unemployment Rate 3 4.7
7/8/2016 U.S.A Nonfarm Payrolls 3 38
7/12/2016 U.K. Inflation Report Hearings 3
7/13/2016 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
7/14/2016 U.K. BoE Interest Rate Decision 3 0.5
7/15/2016 China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3 6.7
7/15/2016 China Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 3
7/15/2016 U.S.A Retail Sales (MoM) 3 0.5
7/15/2016 U.S.A Retail control 3 0.4
7/15/2016 U.S.A Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) 3 0.4
7/17/2016 New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 0.4
7/17/2016 New Zealand Consumer Price Index (QoQ) 3 0.2
7/19/2016 Australia RBA Meeting’s Minutes 3
7/19/2016 U.K. Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 0.3
7/19/2016 U.K. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 1.2
7/21/2016 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 3 0
7/22/2016 Canada Consumer Price Index Core 3 2.1
7/22/2016 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 1.5
7/26/2016 U.S.A Durable Goods CORE 3 -0.3
7/26/2016 U.S.A Durable Goods Orders 3 -2.2
7/27/2016 Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 1.3
7/27/2016 Australia RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY) 3 1.7
7/27/2016 Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) 3 -0.2
7/27/2016 U.S.A Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement 3
7/29/2016 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.1

 

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