Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast March 2013

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Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast March 2013

Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast March 2013

Outlook and Recommendation

Gold had an active month hitting a high of 1685.00 to close over 100 dollars below at 1578.70. Gold fell more than 1 percent on Thursday, as gains in U.S. equities and economic optimism sapped safe-haven demand for the precious metal, which ended February with its fifth straight monthly drop, the longest string of monthly declines since 1996. Bullion fell sharply for a second day, after U.S. data showed the economy grew slightly in the fourth quarter while new claims for unemployment dropped last week.  Signs of an improving U.S. economy have sent the Dow Jones industrials and the S&P 500 stock index within striking distance of record highs. Gold fell 5 percent in February and bullion holdings in gold-backed exchange traded funds posted sharp monthly losses. Investors are reassessing where they have their money allocated at, and they are now focusing on the equity markets which have been holding up very firm.

Highest: 1685.65

Lowest: 1554.80

Difference: 130.85

Average: 1629.87

Change %: -5.90

Hedge funds and money managers increased their net long gold futures and options positions in the week to Feb. 26 after they cut them sharply in the previous period, according to CFTC. Specs raised net longs in gold by 11,861 lots to 54,180. Reflecting the negative sentiment among fund investors, an exodus from the SPDR Gold Trust the world’s biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, continued for a seventh consecutive session, marking the longest outflow in the fund’s history. What we are seeing just now is a lack of love from investors towards gold. Why would you be in a market that doesn’t pay any dividends and yield, and is most likely to underperform in an environment where economic indicators are seen improving? Bullion has struggled so far this year after 12 years of rising prices as signs of improving economic conditions in China and the United States. Stabilization in much of Europe has also lured investors away from safe-haven assets.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank – Fed Reserve

Date of next meeting or last meeting: March 20, 2013

Current Rate: 0.00 – 0.25%

GOLD 0301M

Economic events for the month of February affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Mar 1

4:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

51.0

50.8

 

10:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

52.7

53.1

Mar 4

4:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

48.7

Mar 5

4:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

51.5

 

10:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

55.2

Mar 6

8:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

192K

Mar 7

3:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

427.0B

 

7:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

   

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

7:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

   

USD

Trade Balance

 

-38.5B

   

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

344K

 

16:30

USD

Bank Stress Test Results

   

Mar 8

3:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

-0.3%

 

8:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

157K

   

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

7.9%

 

20:30

CNY

CPI y/y

 

2.0%

Mar 12

4:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

1.6%

Mar 13

7:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

0.2%

   

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.1%

Mar 14

3:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

 

7:30

USD

PPI m/m

 

0.2%

   

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

Mar 15

7:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

 

0.3%

 

8:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

   

Mar 19

4:30

GBP

CPI y/y

   
   

GBP

PPI Input m/m

   
 

7:30

USD

Building Permits

   

Mar 20

4:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

   
 

4:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

   
 

7:30

GBP

Annual Budget Release

   

Mar 21

4:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

   
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

9:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

   
   

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   
 

20:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

Mar 22

3:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

4:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

   

Mar 26

7:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

   
 

9:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

   
   

USD

New Home Sales

   

Mar 27

4:30

GBP

Current Account

   
 

9:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

   

Mar 28

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

Mar 31

20:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

   
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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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