Outlook and Recommendation Gold reached 1233.40 on the last trading day of the month seeing a gain of 10.49%. At nearly 1,240 a troy ounce, the gold price
Gold reached 1233.40 on the last trading day of the month seeing a gain of 10.49%. At nearly 1,240 a troy ounce, the gold price was recently almost 17% higher than at the start of the year. Investor interest awoke as the price rose. Speculative investors have increased their net long positions considerably, and ETFs have seen massive inflows (chart 19). In contrast, India’s gold imports have recently disappointed. But should the Indian government announce a relaxation in the taxation of gold imports in its budget, imports would likely rise again noticeably.
The recovery of the USD, equities suggested the markets have taken a pause of the talk over the global economic woes. And even the chances of a Fed rate hike this year picked up: If a couple of weeks ago the market estimated nary a hike in 2016, last time the odds grew to a possible single rate raise by December. But it’s worth noting that the recent recovery may not last long especially if the economic data coming from the U.S. and China disappoint. And keep in mind that the long term interest rates are still coming down, which will help keep up gold and silver. Conversely, the concerns over a possible Brexit will continue to occupy the news and help pull up the USD against the Pound and Euro – a shift that could curb down any rally for bullion.
There are widespread concerns that the US economy is sliding into a recession. However, the indicators due out next week, such as the employment report and the purchasing managers’ indices, are more likely to show a robust, if unspectacular, US economy. In the euro zone, the inflation rate will probably drop back again to 0.1%. In the last few weeks, many commentators have painted the picture of a specter of recession in the USA. We believe these fears are much exaggerated and view the weakness at the end of 2015 as a temporary dip and expect – as in similar situations in recent years – that the unspectacular economic recovery will continue
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
March 1, 2016
CNY | Manufacturing PMI | |||||||||
CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | |||||||||
AUD | Interest Rate Decision | |||||||||
AUD | RBA Rate Statement | |||||||||
EUR | German Manufacturing PMI | |||||||||
EUR | German Unemployment | |||||||||
GBP | Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | |||||||||
CAD | GDP (MoM) (Dec) | |||||||||
USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | |||||||||
March 2, 2016 | ||||||||||
AUD | GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | |||||||||
GBP | Construction PMI (Feb) | |||||||||
USD | ADP Nonfarm Employment | |||||||||
USD | Crude Oil Inventories | |||||||||
March 3, 2016 | ||||||||||
GBP | Services PMI (Feb) | |||||||||
USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing | |||||||||
March 4, 2016 | ||||||||||
AUD | Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | |||||||||
USD | Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) | |||||||||
USD | Unemployment Rate (Feb) | |||||||||
CAD | Ivey PMI (Feb) | |||||||||
March 8, 2016 | ||||||||||
JPY | GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | |||||||||
CNY | Trade Balance (USD) (Feb) | |||||||||
March 9, 2016 | ||||||||||
GBP | Manufacturing Production | |||||||||
CAD | Interest Rate Decision | |||||||||
March 10, 2016 | ||||||||||
NZD | Interest Rate Decision | |||||||||
CNY | CPI (YoY) (Feb) | |||||||||
EUR | Interest Rate Decision (Mar) | |||||||||
March 11, 2016 | ||||||||||
CAD | Employment Change (Feb) | |||||||||
March 12, 2016 | ||||||||||
CNY | Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) | |||||||||
March 14, 2016 | ||||||||||
NZD | GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | |||||||||
March 16, 2016 | ||||||||||
GBP | Average Earnings Index | |||||||||
GBP | Claimant Count Change (Feb) | |||||||||
March 17, 2016 | ||||||||||
NZD | GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | |||||||||
AUD | Employment Change (Feb) | |||||||||
EUR | CPI (YoY) (Feb) | |||||||||
GBP | Interest Rate Decision (Mar) | |||||||||
March 18, 2016 | ||||||||||
CAD | Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) | |||||||||
CAD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) | |||||||||
March 21, 2016 | ||||||||||
Japan – Spring Equinox Day | ||||||||||