Advertisement
Advertisement

Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast – March 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Feb 29, 2016, 18:52 UTC

Outlook and Recommendation Gold reached 1233.40 on the last trading day of the month seeing a gain of 10.49%. At nearly 1,240 a troy ounce, the gold price

Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast – March 2016

gold monthly bns
Outlook and Recommendation

Gold reached 1233.40 on the last trading day of the month seeing a gain of 10.49%. At nearly 1,240 a troy ounce, the gold price was recently almost 17% higher than at the start of the year. Investor interest awoke as the price rose. Speculative investors have increased their net long positions considerably, and ETFs have seen massive inflows (chart 19). In contrast, India’s gold imports have recently disappointed. But should the Indian government announce a relaxation in the taxation of gold imports in its budget, imports would likely rise again noticeably.

The recovery of the USD, equities suggested the markets have taken a pause of the talk over the global economic woes. And even the chances of a Fed rate hike this year picked up: If a couple of weeks ago the market estimated nary a hike in 2016, last time the odds grew to a possible single rate raise by December. But it’s worth noting that the recent recovery may not last long especially if the economic data coming from the U.S. and China disappoint. And keep in mind that the long term interest rates are still coming down, which will help keep up gold and silver. Conversely, the concerns over a possible Brexit will continue to occupy the news and help pull up the USD against the Pound and Euro – a shift that could curb down any rally for bullion.

There are widespread concerns that the US economy is sliding into a recession. However, the indicators due out next week, such as the employment report and the purchasing managers’ indices, are more likely to show a robust, if unspectacular, US economy. In the euro zone, the inflation rate will probably drop back again to 0.1%. In the last few weeks, many commentators have painted the picture of a specter of recession in the USA. We believe these fears are much exaggerated and view the weakness at the end of 2015 as a temporary dip and expect – as in similar situations in recent years – that the unspectacular economic recovery will continue

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

gol m

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

March 1, 2016

    CNY Manufacturing PMI        
    CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI        
    AUD Interest Rate Decision        
    AUD RBA Rate Statement        
    EUR German Manufacturing PMI        
    EUR German Unemployment        
    GBP Manufacturing PMI (Feb)        
    CAD GDP (MoM) (Dec)        
    USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)        
March 2, 2016  
    AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)        
    GBP Construction PMI (Feb)        
    USD ADP Nonfarm Employment        
    USD Crude Oil Inventories        
March 3, 2016  
    GBP Services PMI (Feb)        
    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing        
March 4, 2016  
    AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)        
    USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)        
    USD Unemployment Rate (Feb)        
    CAD Ivey PMI (Feb)        
March 8, 2016  
    JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)        
    CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Feb)        
March 9, 2016  
    GBP Manufacturing Production        
    CAD Interest Rate Decision        
March 10, 2016  
    NZD Interest Rate Decision        
    CNY CPI (YoY) (Feb)        
    EUR Interest Rate Decision (Mar)        
March 11, 2016  
  CAD Employment Change (Feb)        
March 12, 2016  
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan)        
March 14, 2016  
  NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)        
March 16, 2016  
    GBP Average Earnings Index        
    GBP Claimant Count Change (Feb)          
March 17, 2016  
    NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)          
    AUD Employment Change (Feb)          
    EUR CPI (YoY) (Feb)        
    GBP Interest Rate Decision (Mar)          
March 18, 2016  
    CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Feb)          
    CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM)          
March 21, 2016  
  Japan – Spring Equinox Day  

 

 

About the Author

Did you find this article useful?

Advertisement