Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast September 2012

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Outlook and Recommendation

Gold skyrocketed to close the month heading towards the 1700 big number. After a month of bumps and dips based on the hopes and dreams of stimulus, promises from the ECB and tumbling Chinese economic data, gold has seen highs and lows reaching over 100.00 in range.

Highest: 1693.05

Lowest: 1585.25

Difference: 107.80

Average: 1630.62

Change %: 5.53

Gold finished the week higher for the second week in a row at 1686. Gold has broken through the topside of a large triangle pattern which had resistance at 1655. The next resistance is the 1790 high from March. There is support from the base of the triangle in the low 1520’s. On the monthly chart, gold finished the month higher. It has been in a consolidation pattern since August 2011 but is looking to make a break higher. It faces trendline resistance at 1700

All eyes were on the US on Friday when Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke made his keynote speech at Jackson Hole.

The financial markets were hoping he would unveil new measures to kick-start the American economy, and Bernanke duly dropped broad hints that more quantitative easing from the Fed was on the way.

At the annual meeting of central bankers in the remote Wyoming Mountains, Bernanke expanded on the dovish script set out at the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting in August.

The next US employment report on September 7 will be absolutely key. Unless the figures are solidly above expectations then the Fed is quite  likely to announce a third round of QE at its September meeting, as otherwise they may feel they have to delay until 2013, since action closer to the presidential election in November would then become too politically sensitive,” he added.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank Name: Fed Reserve

Date of next meeting or last meeting: 09/13/12

Current Rate: 0.00%-0.250%

Economic events for the month of May affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Forecast

Previous

Sep 1

2:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

49.8

50.1

Sep 3

 8:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.5%

3.7%

 

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

46.2

45.4

Sep 4

9:30

GBP

Construction PMI

50.1

50.9

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

50.1

49.8

Sep 5

8:15

CHF

CPI m/m

0.1%

-0.5%

 

9:30

GBP

Services PMI

51.5

51.0

Sep 6

12:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

 

12:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

141K

163K

 

13:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

   
 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

369K

374B

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.6

52.6

Sep 7

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

408.6B

 

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

2.1%

-2.9%

 

9:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

1.6%

1.3%

 

13:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

121K

163K

 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.3%

8.3%

Sep 9

2:30

CNY

CPI y/y

 

1.8%

Sep 10

Tentative

CNY

Trade Balance

 

25.1B

Sep 11

13:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-42.9B

Sep 12

9:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

-5.9K

Sep 13

8:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

 

13:30

USD

PPI m/m

 

0.3%

 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

17:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   
 

19:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

 

Sep 14

13:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

 

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.8%

 

14:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

74.3

Sep 18

9:30

GBP

CPI y/y

   
 

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

   
 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

   
 

Tentative

GBP

BOE Inflation Letter

   

Sep 19

9:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

   
 

13:30

USD

Building Permits

   
 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

   

Sep 20

3:30

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

8:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

   
 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

15:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   

Sep 24

9:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

   

Sep 25

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

   

Sep 26

15:00

USD

New Home Sales

   

Sep 27

9:30

GBP

Current Account

   
 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

   
 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

   

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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