Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast September 2012

Posted September 04, 2012 18:11 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Outlook and Recommendation

Gold skyrocketed to close the month heading towards the 1700 big number. After a month of bumps and dips based on the hopes and dreams of stimulus, promises from the ECB and tumbling Chinese economic data, gold has seen highs and lows reaching over 100.00 in range.

Highest: 1693.05	Lowest: 1585.25	Difference: 107.80	Average: 1630.62	Change %: 5.53

Gold finished the week higher for the second week in a row at 1686. Gold has broken through the topside of a large triangle pattern which had resistance at 1655. The next resistance is the 1790 high from March. There is support from the base of the triangle in the low 1520’s. On the monthly chart, gold finished the month higher. It has been in a consolidation pattern since August 2011 but is looking to make a break higher. It faces trendline resistance at 1700

All eyes were on the US on Friday when Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke made his keynote speech at Jackson Hole.

The financial markets were hoping he would unveil new measures to kick-start the American economy, and Bernanke duly dropped broad hints that more quantitative easing from the Fed was on the way.

At the annual meeting of central bankers in the remote Wyoming Mountains, Bernanke expanded on the dovish script set out at the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting in August.

The next US employment report on September 7 will be absolutely key. Unless the figures are solidly above expectations then the Fed is quite likely to announce a third round of QE at its September meeting, as otherwise they may feel they have to delay until 2013, since action closer to the presidential election in November would then become too politically sensitive,” he added.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank Name: Fed Reserve

Date of next meeting or last meeting: 09/13/12

Current Rate: 0.00%-0.250%

Economic events for the month of May affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency		Forecast	Previous
Sep 1	2:00	CNY	Manufacturing PMI	49.8	50.1
Sep 3	8:15	CHF	Retail Sales y/y	4.5%	3.7%
	9:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	46.2	45.4
Sep 4	9:30	GBP	Construction PMI	50.1	50.9
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	50.1	49.8
Sep 5	8:15	CHF	CPI m/m	0.1%	-0.5%
	9:30	GBP	Services PMI	51.5	51.0
Sep 6	12:00	GBP	Asset Purchase Facility	375B	375B
	12:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.50%	0.50%
	13:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	141K	163K
	13:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference
	13:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	369K	374B
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	52.6	52.6
Sep 7	8:00	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves		408.6B
	9:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m	2.1%	-2.9%
	9:30	GBP	PPI Input m/m	1.6%	1.3%
	13:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	121K	163K
	13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.3%	8.3%
Sep 9	2:30	CNY	CPI y/y		1.8%
Sep 10	Tentative	CNY	Trade Balance		25.1B
Sep 11	13:30	USD	Trade Balance		-42.9B
Sep 12	9:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-5.9K
Sep 13	8:30	CHF	Libor Rate	<0.25%	<0.25%
	13:30	USD	PPI m/m		0.3%
	13:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	17:30	USD	FOMC Statement
	19:15	USD	FOMC Press Conference
Sep 14	13:30	USD	Core CPI m/m		0.1%
	13:30	USD	Retail Sales m/m		0.8%
	14:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment		74.3
Sep 18	9:30	GBP	CPI y/y
	9:30	GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment
	Tentative	GBP	BOE Inflation Letter
Sep 19	9:30	GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes
	13:30	USD	Building Permits
	15:00	USD	Existing Home Sales
Sep 20	3:30	CNY	HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
	8:30	EUR	German Flash Manufacturing PMI
	9:30	GBP	Retail Sales m/m
	13:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	15:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Sep 24	9:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate
Sep 25	15:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence
Sep 26	15:00	USD	New Home Sales
Sep 27	9:30	GBP	Current Account
	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
	13:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales m/m

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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