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Gold, Silver & Platinum Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 –Forecast

By:
Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold was flat on the US holiday with muted volumes trading at 1070.90 while Silver added 15 points to 14.17. Gold prices

Gold, Silver & Platinum Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 –Forecast

Gold, Silver & Platinum Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 –Forecast
Gold, Silver & Platinum Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 –Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold was flat on the US holiday with muted volumes trading at 1070.90 while Silver added 15 points to 14.17. Gold prices dropped on Wednesday, hovering just above the lowest level in nearly six years on pressure from a rebounding dollar after strong US economic data heightened expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month. Manufacturing output rose well above economists’ expectations in October and a gauge of US business investment plans surged. “The orders number is surprisingly positive and that’s what’s weighing on the market.

Gold has been pressured by increasing views that the Federal Reserve will hike US rates next month for the first time in nearly a decade. Higher US rates would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, weighing on prices.

The yellow metal made modest gains yesterday following reports that’s Turkey shot down a Russian warplane but that rally quickly fizzled out.

“Geopolitical events like these usually give gold a boost, but our experience is that they tend to be short-lived, especially if the situation remains relatively contained. At this stage, the Russian-Turkish incident seems to be the most pressing, but we do not think it will escalate much further,” INTL FCStone’ s Edward Meir said.

While the safe-haven bump was less than convincing, Scotiabank noted that technical support at $1,066 held yesterday and twice last week. “The metal typically breaks levels on the third attempt, so our inability to move lower is a positive development,” Scotiabank said. “The technical picture remains bearish, but we would expect quick stop-loss buying should gold deal back above last week’s $1,093 high. If $1,066 does break, our target is $1,045, which is the 2010 low.”

Several important data points are due from the US today – core durable goods orders, unemployment claims, the HPI, flash services PMI, new homes sales, revised UoM consumer sentiment and revised UoM inflation expectations. But with the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, interest and volumes should be fairly muted for the next several days.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

-963M

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

-3,240M

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

-9.2%

-3.0%

-4.4%

   

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate

 

9.2

9.4

   

 

gold

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 27, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Day following Thanksgiving – Early close at 13:30

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Oct)

 

1.1%

-1.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.4%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Oct)

 

1.24

1.24

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)

 

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov)

 

0.5%

0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov)

 

4.2%

3.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 

 

1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

2.3%

2.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.5%

0.5%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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