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Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis, April 25 – April 29, 2016 -Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Apr 23, 2016, 15:22 UTC

June Comex Gold futures managed to close the week higher despite a more than 1 percent decline on Friday that was fueled by the US Dollar strong gains

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis, April 25 – April 29, 2016 -Forecast

June Comex Gold futures managed to close the week higher despite a more than 1 percent decline on Friday that was fueled by the US Dollar strong gains against the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Gold almost posted its second consecutive weekly loss, but managed a late session rally on Friday to finish at $1237.60, up $3.00 or 0.24%.

The catalysts behind last week’s price action was the direction of the US Dollar and Silver markets. These two markets are likely to influence the market this week also.

The direction of the gold market this week is likely to be determined by monetary policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday, April 27 and the Bank of Japan on Thursday, April 28.

The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates at this meeting, but it may mention in its statement that it will be considering at two rates hikes this year due to the strengthening U.S. Labor market.

There is strong speculation the Bank of Japan is considering applying negative rates to its lending program for financial institutions, effectively starting to pay banks to borrow its cash.

Both decisions will help boost the dollar which should lead to further pressure on gold prices.

July Comex Silver posted an 11-month high last week, helped by optimism over Chinese growth, and a break over key chart resistance. Huge ETF accumulations help boost prices. Speculators have also been plowing money into silver.

July Platinum logged its strongest week in seven with a 3 percent rise. June Palladium rose 7 percent for the week, after climbing to $619.05, its highest level since November.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Weekly June Comex Gold, April 23, 2016
Weekly June Comex Gold, April 23, 2016

Major Economic Events for the week:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous

Monday, April 25, 2016

AUD        ANZAC Day Holiday

NZD        ANZAC Day Holiday

  EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr)   107.0 106.7
  USD New Home Sales (Mar)   520K 512K

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

  USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar)   0.5% -1.3%
  USD CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)   96.0 96.2
  AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q1)   0.3% 0.4%

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

  GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.4% 0.6%
  GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1)   2.0% 2.1%
  USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)   0.5% 3.5%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories   2.080M
  USD FOMC Statement  
  USD Fed Interest Rate Decision   0.50% 0.50%
  NZD Interest Rate Decision   2.25%

Thursday, April 28, 2016

  EUR German Unemployment Change (Apr)   4K
  USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.7% 1.4%

Friday, April 29, 2016

  JPY        Showa Day Holiday

  EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr)  
  CAD GDP (MoM) (Feb)   -0.1% 0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Apr 25 N/A UK 2.5% July 2065 Gilt (Syndicated tap)

Apr 25 11:35 Germany Eur 1.5bn Apr 2017 Bubill

Apr 26 11:10 Italy Holds BTPei auction

Apr 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year note auction

Apr 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Apr 27 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ auction

Apr 27 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Apr 27 19:00 US 2-year FRN, 5-year note auctions

Apr 28 11:10 Italy Holds 5yr/10yr bond auctions

Apr 28 19:00 US Holds 7-year note auction

 

 

 

 

 

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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