June Comex Gold futures managed to close the week higher despite a more than 1 percent decline on Friday that was fueled by the US Dollar strong gains
June Comex Gold futures managed to close the week higher despite a more than 1 percent decline on Friday that was fueled by the US Dollar strong gains against the Euro and Japanese Yen.
Gold almost posted its second consecutive weekly loss, but managed a late session rally on Friday to finish at $1237.60, up $3.00 or 0.24%.
The catalysts behind last week’s price action was the direction of the US Dollar and Silver markets. These two markets are likely to influence the market this week also.
The direction of the gold market this week is likely to be determined by monetary policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday, April 27 and the Bank of Japan on Thursday, April 28.
The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates at this meeting, but it may mention in its statement that it will be considering at two rates hikes this year due to the strengthening U.S. Labor market.
There is strong speculation the Bank of Japan is considering applying negative rates to its lending program for financial institutions, effectively starting to pay banks to borrow its cash.
Both decisions will help boost the dollar which should lead to further pressure on gold prices.
July Comex Silver posted an 11-month high last week, helped by optimism over Chinese growth, and a break over key chart resistance. Huge ETF accumulations help boost prices. Speculators have also been plowing money into silver.
July Platinum logged its strongest week in seven with a 3 percent rise. June Palladium rose 7 percent for the week, after climbing to $619.05, its highest level since November.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week:
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
Monday, April 25, 2016
AUD ANZAC Day Holiday
NZD ANZAC Day Holiday
EUR | German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr) | 107.0 | 106.7 | |
USD | New Home Sales (Mar) | 520K | 512K |
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
USD | Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) | 0.5% | -1.3% | |
USD | CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) | 96.0 | 96.2 | |
AUD | CPI (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
GBP | GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
GBP | GDP (YoY) (Q1) | 2.0% | 2.1% | |
USD | Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.5% | 3.5% | |
USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.080M | ||
USD | FOMC Statement | |||
USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
NZD | Interest Rate Decision | 2.25% |
Thursday, April 28, 2016
EUR | German Unemployment Change (Apr) | 4K | ||
USD | GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.7% | 1.4% |
Friday, April 29, 2016
JPY Showa Day Holiday
EUR | CPI (YoY) (Apr) | |||
CAD | GDP (MoM) (Feb) | -0.1% | 0.6% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country Auction
Apr 25 N/A UK 2.5% July 2065 Gilt (Syndicated tap)
Apr 25 11:35 Germany Eur 1.5bn Apr 2017 Bubill
Apr 26 11:10 Italy Holds BTPei auction
Apr 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year note auction
Apr 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Apr 27 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ auction
Apr 27 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund
Apr 27 19:00 US 2-year FRN, 5-year note auctions
Apr 28 11:10 Italy Holds 5yr/10yr bond auctions
Apr 28 19:00 US Holds 7-year note auction
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.