Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 23-27, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.
- Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
- Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
- A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
- Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold ended the week down trading at 1583.85 declining since Monday’s open at 1590.55. Gold is more stuck in an area of congestion between the 1595-1575 price zone and traded there all week.
Negative comments on the US economy and no indication of additional stimulus from Chairman Bernanke left markets hanging most of the week. Towards the end of the week with continued negative eco data, markets began to rethink the Chairman’s remarks.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jul 20, 2012 |
1583.85 |
1583.35 |
1586.65 |
1572.95 |
0.03% |
|
Jul 19, 2012 |
1583.45 |
1573.25 |
1591.35 |
1572.55 |
0.64% |
|
Jul 18, 2012 |
1573.35 |
1583.75 |
1585.65 |
1567.35 |
-0.67% |
|
Jul 17, 2012 |
1583.95 |
1590.35 |
1598.75 |
1571.15 |
-0.40% |
|
Jul 16, 2012 |
1590.25 |
1590.55 |
1594.55 |
1577.95 |
-0.03% |
Most of the week was focused on the EU and Spain as investors looked for safe harbors which gold did not benefit from, it seems that the prime safety these days is the JPY.
Gold is expected to meander aimlessly until eco data heats up towards midweek but the outlook for Gold is downwards.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 16 – 20 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
EUR |
Core CPI y/y |
1.6% |
1.6% |
1.6% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
3.9 |
2.3 |
|
|
Jul 17 |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
2.8% |
2.8% |
|
GBP |
RPI y/y |
2.8% |
3.0% |
3.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-19.6 |
-17.3 |
-16.9 |
|
|
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
45.7B |
27.2B |
|
|
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
79.2% |
78.7% |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 18 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
6.1K |
6.2K |
6.9K |
|
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
|
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-42.5 |
-43.4 |
||
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
0.77M |
0.78M |
|
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
0.74M |
0.71M |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.8M |
0.5M |
-4.7M |
|
|
Jul 19 |
CHF |
Trade Balance |
2.25B |
2.21B |
2.52B |
|
EUR |
Current Account |
10.9B |
5.3B |
5.5B |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.1% |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
367K |
352K |
|
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.37M |
4.64M |
4.62M |
|
|
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
-7.9 |
-16.6 |
|
|
Jul 20 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.4% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
12.1B |
11.8B |
16.1B |
Historical
Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011
Average: 1418.48 over this period
Lowest: 1026.95 on Oct 28, 2009
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 24 |
7:00 |
EUR |
45.2 |
|
|
7:00 |
EUR |
47.9 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
45.0 |
||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
49.9 |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
45.1 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
30.2K |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
47.1 |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
52.5 |
||
|
Jul 25 |
8:00 |
EUR |
105.3 |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-0.3% |
||
|
10:00 |
GBP |
-11 |
||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
-13.2 |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
369K |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
|||
|
Jul 26 |
6:00 |
EUR |
5.8 |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
2.9% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.7% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
5.9% |
||
|
Jul 27 |
27th-31st |
GBP |
-0.6% |
|
|
All Day |
EUR |
-0.1% |
||
|
7:00 |
CHF |
1.16 |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
1.9% |
||
|
13:55 |
USD |
72.0 |
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