Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 9-13, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.

  • Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
  • Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
  • A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
  • Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold had a busy week, soaring early on to trade over the 1620 magical number only to fall straight back down over the next three days. US markets were closed on Wednesday for the 4th of July holiday, but the fireworks did not commence until the 5th of July. The ECB reduced its key rate as markets expected but also reduced its deposit rate to zero, which was followed some rather somber statements from the director, weakening the euro and strengthening the USD. Risk aversion was back on as gold fell and the dollar climbed. As the time moved on the IMF added its two cents by reducing global growth forecasts for 2012 and then came the US Nonfarm report, worse than expected but with dreams of Feds and their bazookas. Gold tumbled and the USD climbed.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jul 06, 2012

1583.85

1607.65

1609.85

1576.55

-1.45%

Jul 05, 2012

1607.15

1615.75

1624.05

1597.65

-0.54%

Jul 04, 2012

1615.85

1620.15

1620.15

1612.05

-0.28%

Jul 03, 2012

1620.35

1595.85

1625.25

1595.55

1.55%

Jul 02, 2012

1595.55

1599.15

1602.85

1587.65

-0.23%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of July 2 – 6 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul 2

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

6.2%

2.1%

0.2%

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

41.1

 

42.0

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

48.6

46.6

45.9

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

49.7

52.1

53.5

Jul 3

GBP

Construction PMI

48.2

53.1

54.4

Jul 4

GBP

Services PMI

51.3

52.9

53.3

Jul 5

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

6.43|3.2

 

6.04|3.3

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

325B

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

1.00%

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

176K

103K

136K

USD

Unemployment Claims

374K

385K

388K

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.1

53.1

53.7

Jul 6

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

364.9B

 

305.9B

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

-0.3%

0.0%

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

-2.1%

-2.6%

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

80K

97K

77K

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

8.2%

 

Highest:1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average:1418.48 over this period

Lowest: 1026.95 on Oct 28, 2009

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 9

8:00

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

-28.9

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

1.3%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

-16%

Jul 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

1.5%

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

-0.7%

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-10.1B

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

0.1%

Jul 11

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.