Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 11-15, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.

  • Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
  • Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
  • A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
  • Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold traded sideways on Friday after bobbing up and down all day. The commodity has declined from a high of 1642.15 earlier in the week to close the week at 1594.35

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 08, 2012

1594.35

1593.15

1596.15

1559.35

0.08%

Jun 07, 2012

1593.05

1623.55

1630.35

1580.75

-1.90%

Jun 06, 2012

1623.85

1619.25

1642.15

1614.85

0.28%

Jun 05, 2012

1619.35

1620.95

1624.85

1613.85

-0.10%

Jun 04, 2012

1621.05

1618.15

1629.55

1610.25

0.19%

Gold prices were quite stable during the initial sessions, as the negative sentiments in Europe limited the downside in gold prices. Later we saw gold prices falling drastically after the Fed chairman gave no hints on the QE3, which dampened the gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Prices fell below $1600 for the first time in the week on Friday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 4 – 8 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 5

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.7

53.6

53.5

GBP

Construction PMI

54.4

54.5

55.8

Jun 6

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

1.00%

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

303.8B

 

237.6B

Jun 7

CHF

CPI m/m

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

GBP

Services PMI

53.3

52.6

53.3

EUR

Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

6.04|3.3

 

5.74|2.4

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

325B

325B

325B

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

USD

Unemployment Claims

377K

381K

389K

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.5%

-1.2%

-1.4%

Jun 8

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

-49.4B

-52.6B

 

 

 

 

 

Historical

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1418.48 over this period

Lowest: 1026.95 on Oct 28, 2009

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and CHF

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 11

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.9%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

 

-19%

Jun 12

5:45

CHF

SECO Economic Forecasts

   

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

0.9%

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

 

0.1%

Jun 13

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

 

-0.1%

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.3%

Jun 14

7:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

7:30

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

   

7:30

CHF

SNB Press Conference

   

8:00

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

   

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

   

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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