Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

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Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.

  • Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
  • Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
  • A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
  • Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold gained its luster again this week, moving up from the weekly open at 1682.35 to high a high of 1738.75 and close the week at 1731.15. Precious metals once again reined the markets as the re-election of President Obama is interpreted that Mr. Bernanke will be able to maintain his lose monetary policy.  Gold consolidated above $1,730 an ounce in afternoon trade on Friday capping a week that saw the precious metal rise 3.5% in value to reach a three-week high.

Gold’s reputation as a safe haven asset was burnished this week as riskier investments like stocks – the Dow Jones plunged more than 400 points over two days – take a beating post the Obama victory in the US presidential race. What makes gold’s weekly performance even more impressive is that the yellow metal’s gains were in the teeth of a stronger dollar – gold usually moves in the opposite direction to the currency.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Nov 09, 2012

1731.15

1732.05

1738.75

1727.05

-0.05%

Nov 08, 2012

1731.95

1717.05

1735.05

1712.75

0.87%

Nov 07, 2012

1716.95

1711.45

1731.75

1703.05

0.33%

Nov 06, 2012

1711.35

1686.05

1720.85

1683.55

1.49%

Nov 05, 2012

1686.15

1682.35

1686.65

1672.55

0.23%

Gold exchange traded funds saw their physical holdings surge this week to a new record high of 2,596 tonnes. Rumors are also circulating that the 1.7% jump in the price on Election Day was as a result of a large gold purchase by a fund of billionaire George Soros, a political backer of Obama.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for November 5 – 9 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Nov. 05 

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change 

128.20K

90.50K

79.60K

 

GBP

Services PMI 

50.6

52.0

52.2

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

54.2

54.5

55.1

Nov. 06 

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate 

-17

-22

-17

 

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.7%

0.3%

-0.4%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.7%

-0.6%

-0.5%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

0.1%

0.3%

-1.2%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.6%

-1.6%

-1.0%

 

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-3.3%

-0.5%

-0.8%

 

RUB

Russian CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

0.7%

0.6%

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.5%

 

0.8%

Nov. 07

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

 

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.8%

-0.5%

-0.4%

 

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.675%

 

1.700%

Nov. 08 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

375B

 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-41.5B

-45.0B

-43.8B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

355K

370K

363K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3127K

3253K

3262K

Nov. 09 

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

1.9%

1.9%

 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.8%

-2.7%

-3.6%

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

 

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.7%

20.6%

20.5%

 

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.6%

9.4%

9.2%

 

CNY

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.5%

14.0%

14.2%

 

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-8.4B

-8.9B

-10.0B

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.5%

0.0%

1.1%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

84.9

83.0

82.6

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Nov. 13

07:45

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

 

-0.1%

 

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.2%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.5%

-1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-9.8

-11.5

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-114.0B

75.0B

Nov. 14

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

-0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.9%

1.7%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-4.0K

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.9%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.4%

2.3%

 Nov. 15

07:00

EUR

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

0.3%

 

07:00

EUR

German GDP (YoY) 

0.8%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.7%

2.5%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

2.5%

 

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Nov 12 10:10 Slovakia

Nov 12 10:30 Germany

Nov 13 01:30 Japan

Nov 13 09:30 Holland

Nov 13 10:10 Greece

Nov 13 10:10 Italy

Nov 13 10:30 Belgium

Nov 13 15:30 UK

Nov 14 10:10 Italy

Nov 14 10:10 Sweden

Nov 14 10:30 Germany

Nov 14 10:30 Swiss

Nov 14 11:00 Norway

Nov 15 01:30 Japan

Nov 15 09:50 France

Nov 15 10:30 UK

Nov 15 10:50 France

Nov 15 16:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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