Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Posted November 10, 2012 8:15 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.

Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold gained its luster again this week, moving up from the weekly open at 1682.35 to high a high of 1738.75 and close the week at 1731.15. Precious metals once again reined the markets as the re-election of President Obama is interpreted that Mr. Bernanke will be able to maintain his lose monetary policy. Gold consolidated above $1,730 an ounce in afternoon trade on Friday capping a week that saw the precious metal rise 3.5% in value to reach a three-week high.

Gold’s reputation as a safe haven asset was burnished this week as riskier investments like stocks – the Dow Jones plunged more than 400 points over two days – take a beating post the Obama victory in the US presidential race. What makes gold’s weekly performance even more impressive is that the yellow metal’s gains were in the teeth of a stronger dollar – gold usually moves in the opposite direction to the currency.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Nov 09, 2012	1731.15	1732.05	1738.75	1727.05	-0.05%
Nov 08, 2012	1731.95	1717.05	1735.05	1712.75	0.87%
Nov 07, 2012	1716.95	1711.45	1731.75	1703.05	0.33%
Nov 06, 2012	1711.35	1686.05	1720.85	1683.55	1.49%
Nov 05, 2012	1686.15	1682.35	1686.65	1672.55	0.23%

Gold exchange traded funds saw their physical holdings surge this week to a new record high of 2,596 tonnes. Rumors are also circulating that the 1.7% jump in the price on Election Day was as a result of a large gold purchase by a fund of billionaire George Soros, a political backer of Obama.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for November 5 – 9 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 05	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	128.20K	90.50K	79.60K
	GBP	Services PMI	50.6	52.0	52.2
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.2	54.5	55.1
Nov. 06	CHF	SECO Consumer Climate	-17	-22	-17
	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.7%	0.3%	-0.4%
	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.7%	-0.6%	-0.5%
	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	0.1%	0.3%	-1.2%
	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-2.6%	-1.6%	-1.0%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-3.3%	-0.5%	-0.8%
	RUB	Russian CPI (MoM)	0.5%	0.7%	0.6%
	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.5%		0.8%
Nov. 07	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.8%	-0.5%	-0.4%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.675%		1.700%
Nov. 08	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Trade Balance	-41.5B	-45.0B	-43.8B
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	355K	370K	363K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3127K	3253K	3262K
Nov. 09	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.9%	1.9%
	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-2.8%	-2.7%	-3.6%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
	CNY	Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)	20.7%	20.6%	20.5%
	CNY	Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)	9.6%	9.4%	9.2%
	CNY	Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)	14.5%	14.0%	14.2%
	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%
	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.4B	-8.9B	-10.0B
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	0.5%	0.0%	1.1%
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	84.9	83.0	82.6

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 13	07:45	EUR	French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)		-0.1%
	08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.3%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.3%	2.2%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.2%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.5%	-1.2%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-9.8	-11.5
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-114.0B	75.0B
Nov. 14	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		-0.3%
	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.9%	1.7%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-4.0K
	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.9%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	PPI (MoM)	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	PPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.1%
	13:30	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.4%	2.3%
Nov. 15	07:00	EUR	German GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.3%
	07:00	EUR	German GDP (YoY)	0.8%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.1%	0.6%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.7%	2.5%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.5%	2.5%
	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Nov 12 10:10 Slovakia

Nov 12 10:30 Germany

Nov 13 01:30 Japan

Nov 13 09:30 Holland

Nov 13 10:10 Greece

Nov 13 10:10 Italy

Nov 13 10:30 Belgium

Nov 13 15:30 UK

Nov 14 10:10 Italy

Nov 14 10:10 Sweden

Nov 14 10:30 Germany

Nov 14 10:30 Swiss

Nov 14 11:00 Norway

Nov 15 01:30 Japan

Nov 15 09:50 France

Nov 15 10:30 UK

Nov 15 10:50 France

Nov 15 16:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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