Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

Gold tumbled this week, surprising speculators who were predicting that gold would break the 1800 psychological level this week, but continued positive eco reports in the US dropped the odds of additional stimulus in the US and took the momentum right out of the metal. China’s data dump reported at forecast or better helping buoy markets. With little accomplished at the EU Summit, traders went looking elsewhere on Friday. Risk once again was aimed at the euro and eurozone, as commodity currencies and the greenback climbed. Market will eye this weeks FOMC meeting.

Other risk events this week are the Chinese PMI is set for release Tuesday and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s speech to the German parliament on Wednesday.

The Chinese data will give a better understanding of the current Chinese economy, he said, adding that the PMI number will have to be above 49 to generate “risk-on trading activity.  The bigger risk is if it comes in lower as it will (call) into question the veracity of the data previously released.

Draghi’s speech will review the ECB’s recent outright monetary transaction plan and what it means for European sovereigns. “Given his audience, the risk is that he will sound more hawkish to assuage the German politicians…. Tough talk from Draghi coupled with weaker than expected PMI data will hurt the euro. 

That in turn could pressure gold prices. On Friday the advance third-quarter gross domestic product data is slated for release. Analysts will look to see how much impact higher consumer spending, including on gadgets like Apple’s iPhone 5, will contribute to GDP growth. MarketWatch estimates GDP growth at 1.6%.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 22 09:10 Norway 

Oct 23 08:30 Spain 

Oct 23 14:30 UK 

Oct 23 17:00 US 

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 24 09:30 Germany 

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 24 15:30 Italy  

Oct 24 16:30 US 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy