Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 06, 2012 9:13 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1782.65 after trying to push above the 1800 level but failing. Gold bulls are sure that they will be able to build the momentum this week. After failing to break above on Friday, with a positive jobs report, a lot of profit taking and risk on trading began to push the price downward.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 05, 2012	1782.65	1794.55	1798.05	1774.95	-0.67%
Oct 04, 2012	1794.65	1782.15	1797.55	1780.15	0.70%
Oct 03, 2012	1782.25	1775.25	1783.85	1773.15	0.40%
Oct 02, 2012	1775.15	1779.65	1786.55	1773.25	-0.25%
Oct 01, 2012	1779.55	1767.95	1793.85	1765.75	0.65%

This week gold liked Romney’s performance as it was up sharply the morning after the debate. In fact it’s knocking on the door of fresh highs for 2012. Turkey moved its forces to heightened alert and will be calling on NATO members to defend Turkey’s boarder with Syria after border towns in Turkey were bombed by Syria and Turkish citizens killed. Turkey can well defend itself, so Syria is crazy to be looking to start up with Syria unless Syria wants to drag Iran into this mess. Iran is reportedly moving soldiers to its border with Turkey so Middle East problems have clearly not gone away. They are simmering and will soon boil over.

The ECB is prepared to aid Spain. Spain hasn’t yet asked for help, since the open markets are still buying Spanish debt in bulk and at reasonable levels and Mr. Rajoy needs a better political correct time to ask for help. Spain is able to sell debt at reasonable levels because buyers of the bonds expect Spain to ask for help from the ECB very soon, which will increase the value of the bonds.

Greece has not reached a deal with the troika on releasing the next round of financing as the troika doesn’t think the plan proposed to save billions of Euros in 2013 and 2014 is credible. In fact there were reports today that Spain, the Netherlands and Finland want to postpone the decision on releasing the next 31.5 billion euro tranche of Greek bailout aid until the Nov 12 meeting of Eurozone finance ministers.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	5.9%	4.5%	2.9%
	CHF	SVME PMI	43.6	47.5	46.7
	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	45.70	44.20	43.60
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	42.7	42.6	42.6
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	47.4	47.3	47.3
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.1	46.0	46.0
	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	48.4	49.3	49.5
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.5	49.7	49.6
Oct. 02	GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.3%	1.1%
	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	79.60K		38.20K
Oct. 03	GBP	Services PMI	52.2	53.1	53.7
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	162K	143K	189K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	55.1	53.2	53.7
Oct. 04	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	-0.4%
	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	367K	370K	363K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3281K	3271K	3281K
Oct. 05	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	114K	113K	142K
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	104K	130K	97K

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.9%	1.3%
Oct. 09	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-20%	-19%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	2.9%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.6%	3.2%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.5B	-7.2B
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-1.1%	-0.8%
Oct. 11	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		0.7%
Oct. 12	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	0.6%

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Oct 08 09:10 Norway

Oct 08 15:30 Italy

Oct 09 08:30 Holland

Oct 09 09:30 UK

Oct 09 14:30 UK

Oct 09 17:00 US

Oct 10 09:10 Italy

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden

Oct 10 09:30 Germany

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden

Oct 10 17:00 US

Oct 11 09:10 Italy

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden

Oct 11 09:30 UK

Oct 11 15:00 US

Oct 11 17:00 US

Oct 12 09:30 Germany

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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