Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 17-21, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets.
- Gold reacts to uncertainty in the markets
- Gold reacts to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy
- A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold.
- Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunities when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold closed the week at multi month highs, trading as high as 1777.55 and closing at 1770.05. The news that the FOMC brought out the big guns took a while to sink into the market place. Most everyone was amazed at just how much stimulus was being offered by the Feds. Mr. Bernanke offered up everything he covered in his Jackson Hole address and more.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Sep 14, 2012 |
1770.05 |
1767.85 |
1777.55 |
1765.35 |
0.12% |
|
Sep 13, 2012 |
1767.95 |
1732.05 |
1772.15 |
1705.55 |
2.08% |
|
Sep 12, 2012 |
1731.85 |
1733.35 |
1746.55 |
1725.25 |
-0.10% |
|
Sep 11, 2012 |
1733.55 |
1727.85 |
1737.85 |
1726.65 |
0.34% |
|
Sep 10, 2012 |
1727.65 |
1736.05 |
1740.75 |
1724.55 |
-0.47% |
Traders are actually now wondering, what if? Is there any ammunition left for Mr. Bernanke to fire or is this a one shot take it all deal.
There is also more support for rumors that we may see some plans from the Bank of Japan at their meeting this week along with news from China, showing a concerted global effort to stimulus the global economy. Gold edged up on Friday, extending the previous session’s 2 per cent rally to hit a six-month high after the US Federal Reserve unleashed another round of bullion-friendly stimulus. Investors looking to gold as a traditional inflation hedge against monetary stimulus by central banks around the world pushed bullion up for a fourth straight week for the first time since January.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of September 10-14, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 11 |
00:01 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-19% |
-22% |
-23% |
|
|
06:30 |
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-7.2B |
-9.0B |
-10.1B |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.0B |
-44.0B |
-41.9B |
|
Sep. 12 |
06:30 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.5% |
1.6% |
1.8% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-15.0K |
0.5K |
-13.6K |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.6% |
-0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.7% |
1.4% |
-0.7% |
|
|
18:00 |
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
1.764% |
|
1.680% |
|
Sep. 13 |
08:15 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
1.7% |
1.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
382K |
370K |
367K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3283K |
3318K |
3332K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
1.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
|
|
17:30 |
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
19:00 |
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-191.0B |
-155.0B |
-69.6B |
|
Sep. 14 |
10:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
2.6% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Employment Change (QoQ) |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.7% |
1.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.0% |
2.1% |
|
|
14:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.2% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
79.2 |
74.0 |
74.3 |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011
Average: 1457.33 over this period
Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 17 |
13:30 |
USD |
-2.0 |
-5.8 |
|
|
Sep. 18 |
09:30 |
GBP |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
-19.0 |
-25.5 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-126.0B |
-137.3B |
|
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
|
9.3B |
|
|
Sep. 19 |
13:30 |
USD |
0.800M |
0.811M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.765M |
0.746M |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
4.56M |
4.47M |
|
|
Sep. 20 |
07:58 |
EUR |
46.4 |
46.0 |
|
|
|
08:28 |
EUR |
45.3 |
44.7 |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
2.7% |
2.8% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-15 |
-21 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia
Sep 17 10:00 Norway
Sep 18 08:30 Spain
Sep 18 09:10 Greece
Sep 18 09:30 Belgium
Sep 19 09:10 Sweden
Sep 19 09:30 Germany
Sep 19 09:30 Portugal
Sep 19 10:00 Norway
Sep 20 08:30 Spain
Sep 20 08:50 France
Sep 20 09:30 UK
Sep 20 09:50 France
Sep 20 15:00 US
Sep 20 17:00 US
Sep 21 15:30 Italy
Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com
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