Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 10, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 3.068 adding 0.136 cents in today’s trading. A combination of increased demand for imports of LNG by Japan and a today’s EIA NG inventory stated:

Working gas in storage was 3,241 Bcf as of Friday, August 3, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 24 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 465 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 386 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,855 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 134 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 30 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 171 Bcf above the 5-year average of 937 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 5 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 81 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 1 Bcf. At 3,241 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Although inventories were higher, they were less then markets expected combined with two major storm systems, that could affect or cause supply disruptions energy markets are trading up.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Aug. 09

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

14.0K

 

10.0K 

 

-28.3K 

  

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

  

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.7% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

05:00

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.5% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.8% 

 

9.5% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.1%

 

13.7% 

 

13.7% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-10.1B

 

-8.6B 

 

-8.4B 

 

 

 

13:15

 

CAD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

208.5K

 

213.0K 

 

222.1K 

  

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.8B

 

-1.0B 

 

-0.9B 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-42.9B

 

-47.5B 

 

-48.0B 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

370K 

 

367K 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3332K

 

3280K 

 

3279K 

  

WEEKLY

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

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