Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 13, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.8006 after traders pumped up the price, well over 3.20 and then dumped the commodity.

Temperatures in the US have dropped back to their seasonal range and therefore the demand for excess capacity production has fallen.

Inventories were higher than expected this week in the weekly report by the EIA, and even though there are two major storms brewing, that could become hurricanes, they are not at this time expected to cause major damage or supply disruption. If they do it will have more of an effect on crude oil then on NG.

With numbers out of China disappointing global markets, the entire energy compound is suffering.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Chinese Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.7% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.5% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.8% 

 

9.5% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.1%

 

13.7% 

 

13.7% 

 

 

 

Economic Data for August 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 10

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Monetary Policy Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

25.10B

 

35.10B 

 

31.70B 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5% 

 

-2.9% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-2.4%

 

-1.5% 

 

-3.0% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

-30.4K

 

9.0K 

 

7.3K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

0.1% 

 

-2.4% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.3%

 

7.0% 

 

7.2% 

   

 

WEEKLY

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