Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas declined by 0.069 cents or 2.43% today, ahead of tomorrow’s inventory release and calmer weather patterns and cooler temperatures.

Traders are expecting to see higher inventories tomorrow when the EIA releases its weekly report.

AccuWeather is calling for moderate temperatures across the US through the upcoming holiday weekend, thus reducing the on demand electricity production.

The National Hurricane Forecast, does not project any tropical storms or hurricanes that could effect shipment or supply at the present time.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event 

actual

 

forecast

 

previous

  

Aug. 15

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

-2.50%

 

 

 

3.70% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.20%

 

8.90% 

 

9.00% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-5.9K

 

6.0K 

 

1.0K 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.8

 

6.5 

 

7.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.6% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

9.3B

 

63.0B 

 

55.9B 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

  

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event  

Forecast

Previous

Aug 16

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-42.5

 

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

2.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.3

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

0.4%

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

7.8B

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

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