Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 17, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.784 adding 0.036 today.

With negative eco data from the US and the greenback weakening there is no support for Natural Gas, except the EIA inventory which showed:

Working gas in storage was 3,261 Bcf as of Friday, August 10, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 20 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 442 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 363 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,898 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 118 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 174 Bcf above the 5-year average of 930 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 4 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 71 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 5 Bcf. At 3,261 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

NG did see an increase but it was less than forecast, helping to support the commodity.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

 

Economic Data August 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 16

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.3% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.8%

 

1.4% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.9% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.812M

 

0.770M 

 

0.760M 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

-7.89B

 

10.67B 

 

26.11B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.746M

 

0.757M 

 

0.754M 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.40% 

 

-0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

366K

 

365K 

 

364K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3305K

 

3300K 

 

3336K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-7.1

 

-5.0 

 

-12.9 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event  

Forecast

Previous

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

0.4%

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

7.8B

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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