Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 17, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 16, 2012 17:08 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.784 adding 0.036 today.

With negative eco data from the US and the greenback weakening there is no support for Natural Gas, except the EIA inventory which showed:

Working gas in storage was 3,261 Bcf as of Friday, August 10, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 20 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 442 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 363 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,898 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 118 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 174 Bcf above the 5-year average of 930 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 4 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 71 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 5 Bcf. At 3,261 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

NG did see an increase but it was less than forecast, helping to support the commodity.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 16

KRW

South Korean Unemployment Rate

3.1%

3.3%

3.2%

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.3%

-0.1%

0.8%

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY)

2.8%

1.4%

2.6%

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.4%

2.4%

EUR

Core CPI (YoY)

1.7%

1.9%

1.6%

USD

Building Permits

0.812M

0.770M

0.760M

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

-7.89B

10.67B

26.11B

USD

Housing Starts

0.746M

0.757M

0.754M

CAD

Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

-0.40%

0.40%

-0.40%

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

366K

365K

364K

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3305K

3300K

3336K

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

-7.1

-5.0

-12.9

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 17	6:00	EUR	German PPI m/m	0.4%	-0.4%
	8:00	EUR	Current Account	7.8B	10.9B
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.5	72.3

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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