Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 24, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  prices are trading above $2.784/MMBTU in international market with drop of close to 1 percent from yesterday’s closing. As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is expected to increase by 40 BCF, almost double from last week’s storage data. US consumption has been fallen by more than 2.74 percent and demand declined by 2.43 percent in the last week. However, demand was at 11 percent high during the same period in the last year. On the other side, declining consumption due to mild weather condition may weigh on gas prices in today’s session. As per US weather channel, temperature is likely to remain normal which may not pull gas demand high.  

Higher storage expectation and concern of lower demand may continue to keep prices under pressure. As per National Hurricane Center, tropical storm Isaac is moving over Eastern Caribbean Sea heading towards Gulf region. Concern of supply disturbance may create positive move in gas prices. However, there may be some volatility in the market ahead of tomorrow’s meet of Iran with West bodies in Vienna regarding nuclear Program.

Update: The Natural Gas storage report was just released by the EIA, the report stated:

Working gas in storage was 3,308 Bcf as of Friday, August 17, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 47 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 423 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 357 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,951 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 115 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 48 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 178 Bcf above the 5-year average of 930 Bcf after a net injection of 4 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 63 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 5 Bcf. At 3,308 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 23, 2012 actual v. forecast

WEEKLY

• Natural Gas Weekly Update
  Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
  Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and North American markets

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

23/8  05:45  Japan 

23/8  11:30  UK 

23/8  19:00  US 

27/8  11:30  Germany 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US