Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 24, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  prices are trading above $2.784/MMBTU in international market with drop of close to 1 percent from yesterday’s closing. As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is expected to increase by 40 BCF, almost double from last week’s storage data. US consumption has been fallen by more than 2.74 percent and demand declined by 2.43 percent in the last week. However, demand was at 11 percent high during the same period in the last year. On the other side, declining consumption due to mild weather condition may weigh on gas prices in today’s session. As per US weather channel, temperature is likely to remain normal which may not pull gas demand high.  

Higher storage expectation and concern of lower demand may continue to keep prices under pressure. As per National Hurricane Center, tropical storm Isaac is moving over Eastern Caribbean Sea heading towards Gulf region. Concern of supply disturbance may create positive move in gas prices. However, there may be some volatility in the market ahead of tomorrow’s meet of Iran with West bodies in Vienna regarding nuclear Program.

Update: The Natural Gas storage report was just released by the EIA, the report stated:

Working gas in storage was 3,308 Bcf as of Friday, August 17, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 47 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 423 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 357 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,951 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 115 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 48 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 178 Bcf above the 5-year average of 930 Bcf after a net injection of 4 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 63 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 5 Bcf. At 3,308 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 23, 2012 actual v. forecast

Aug. 23

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

47.80

 

 

 

49.30 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (YoY) 

0.5%

 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.2

 

43.6

 

43.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

 

43.4

 

43.0 

 

 

SEK

 

 

 

Swedish Unemployment Rate 

7.00%

 

7.20%

 

8.80% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.3

 

44.2

 

44.0 

 

 

NOK

 

 

 

Norwegian GDP (QoQ) 

1.2%

 

1.0%

 

1.5% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

28.4K

 

28.2K

 

25.9K 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

-3

 

15

 

11 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

372K

 

365K

 

368K 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3317K

 

3300K

 

3313K 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

New Home Sales 

 

 

365K

 

350K 

 

WEEKLY

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and North American markets

Aug. 24

08:00

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

 

-2.40% 

 

-2.50% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

 

 

2.8% 

 

1.9% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.7% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

 

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.8% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

 

 

0.5% 

 

-1.4% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

 

 

2.4% 

 

1.3% 

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

23/8  05:45  Japan 

23/8  11:30  UK 

23/8  19:00  US 

27/8  11:30  Germany 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

 

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.