Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 3, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas was trading at 3.08 until the weekly inventory was released, which is shown below, Natural Gas dropped to trade at 3.004 as soon as the information was released. Traders also turned negative after Mr. Draghi from the ECB let markets down, offering nothing in the way of a plan, or policy or stimulus to help the failing EU.

 Today’s inventory summary reads as follows:

Working gas in storage was 3,217 Bcf as of Friday, July 27, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 28 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 472 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 407 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,810 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 148 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 30 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 172 Bcf above the 5-year average of 941 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 6 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 87 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 4 Bcf. At 3,217 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Economic Data August 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 02

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.0%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8% 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

0.01B

 

-0.35B 

 

-0.31B 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish Unemployment Change 

-27.80K

 

 

 

-98.90K 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.7%

 

2.0% 

 

6.2% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

48.6

 

47.0 

 

48.1 

 

 

 

 

NOK

 

 

 

Norwegian Unemployment Rate 

3.00%

 

3.00% 

 

3.00% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 

6.647%

 

 

 

6.430% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE QE Total 

375B

 

375B 

 

375B 

 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

 

12:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

 

0.3%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

52.1

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 06  09:10  Norway

Aug 07  00:30  Japan

Aug 07  09:15  Austria

Aug 07  14:30  UK

Aug 07  17:00  US

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

 

 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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