Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 6, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.885 after investors took profits and then prices tumbled on lower temperature and weather forecasts and higher than expected inventories reports for last week.

AccuWeather is now predicting milder temperatures across the US this week and for the first part of the month, lowering the demand for electricity and therefore for the use of natural gas.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 03

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

-0.23%

 

-0.10% 

 

-0.90% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

163K

 

100K 

 

64K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.3%

 

8.2% 

 

8.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.5 

 

34.5 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

172K

 

110K 

 

73K 

   

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 6

8:30

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

-29.6

 

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

1.4%

Aug 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

364.9B

 

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

 

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production m/m

0.8%

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.6%

 

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

-0.2%

Aug 8

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate

-8

 

9:30

GBP

BOE Inflation Report

 
 

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

1.6%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 9

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

 
 

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

 

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