Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – December 2, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  is trading at 2.23 down 5 points as winter weather isn’t as severe as expected and the demand for gas and heating days declines. Natural gas prices fell by 11% in November 2015 due to record inventory, a mild winter forecast, and weak demand cues. The updated report by meteorologists suggests weather will be milder in much of the United States for the next two weeks. Mild weather has contributed to weak demand, which has led to record-high inventories. Last week, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that natural gas inventories rose by 9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) for the week ending November 20, 2015, as compared with the previous week. The next EIA inventory report is scheduled for release on December 5, 2015. The record natural gas inventories are dragging natural gas prices to record lows.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

November 25-Dec 1st: Warm high pressure will rapidly build out of Texas and the South the next few days, expanding across the Midwest and East with temperatures again warming 8-18°F above normal as highs reaches the 50s north to 70s south. As the East warms, the West will become cold as a strong weather system drops down the coast with rain and low elevation snow, including across California. A secondary cold blast will spill into the Rockies and Plains Thanksgiving Day and then spread south and east this weekend, although moderating due to the lack of reinforcing cold. Overall heating demand will be LOW-MODERATE over the coming week due to the milder East.

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WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)